Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TUESDAY - Bank of Japan Decision
There is minimal expectation within the market that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will alter its current yield-curve control and negative short-term rate policy during its meeting on January 22-23. The prevailing circumstances, characterised by decelerating inflation and an uncertain demand outlook, indicate a rationale for maintaining the existing stimulus measures. Governor Kazuo Ueda's indications imply a status quo approach until the BoJ assesses the outcomes of spring pay talks (shunto) scheduled between unions and business leaders in March. The BoJ aims to ascertain whether resultant wage increases can effectively contribute to achieving its 2% inflation target sustainably.
WEDNESDAY - Bank of Canada Decision
The Bank of Canada is unanimously expected to leave its overnight rate on hold at 5% on Wednesday. The updated Monetary Policy Report with its projections will likely be in focus. The perception is that it’s too soon for the Bank to consider guiding towards an imminent rate cut, an idea that has gained steam since surprisingly stubborn core CPI with the Bank’s preferred measures accelerating to between 3.6-3.8% no matter whether looking at 3- or 6-month annualized or Y/Y terms. Indeed, OIS has seen full pricing of a first cut push back from April to June. Note that 2024 meeting decisions have a new routine – rate announcements will be 15 minutes earlier at 0945ET and all will be followed by a press conference at 1030ET, but just those with the MPR.
THURSDAY - ECB Decision
The ECB are firmly expected to leave their three policy rates on hold on Thursday (the benchmark refinancing rate is currently 4.50%). Main market interest will lie on the degree of pushback against current market rate cut pricing. Other than the usually dovish Mario Centeno (Bank of Portugal Governor), speakers have pushed back against the idea of rate cuts before the summer period. MNI sources this week saw an early consensus forming for a first cut in June, however "significant" further easing of inflationary pressure could prompt the first cut to shift to April. After announcing a taper to the pace of PEPP reinvestments in December, no further changes are expected to be announced on the balance sheet front.
THURSDAY - Norges Bank Decision
The Norges Bank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.50% to begin 2024. Main interest will lie in whether any changes are made to the policy guidance. There is no monetary policy report/updated forecast set for this month’s meeting. We think only a sizeable shift in stance will be enough to prompt a material reaction from NOK, as this meeting is viewed by many as a formality, before more interesting questions on the path for potential rate cuts arises in March.
WEDNESDAY / THURSDAY - Emerging Markets: BNM, CBRT, SARB and MAS Decisions
Malaysia: The BNM decision is due next Wednesday, although at this stage with inflation under control, no change is expected (policy rate currently 3.0%). Analysts note that both growth and fiscal support have been pulled back, however, the BNM will likely avoid cutting prematurely in order to maintain a stable currency.
Turkey: Though inflation remains elevated, the CBRT are widely expected to deliver another 250bp rate hike on Thursday, having scaled down the tightening pace from 500bps in December. The central bank has repeatedly stated that monetary policy tightening is nearing completion, with many predicting that this hike will be the last of the cycle.
South Africa: Unanimous consensus among sell-side is for the SARB to hold rates steady at 8.25% on Thursday. Inflation is nearing the mid-point of the SARB's target range of 4.5% as a moderation in food-price gains and lower fuel prices reduce upward pressure on consumer prices. Nevertheless, most analysts expect rate cutting to begin only in Q4.
Separately in Singapore next week, the MAS remains focused on tempering inflation, with the slope of the SGD NEER, band width and mid-point all expected to remain unchanged.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY - US PCE and GDP
The US sees the Q4 advance release for national accounts (Thu) before the monthly PCE report for December (Fri). These are some of the last major releases before the FOMC rate decision on Jan 31, although the employment cost index for Q4 also lands that day. The twin reports could provide a useful steer towards potential Fed commentary after the market has pushed back from fully pricing a first cut in March at the end of last year to now closer to a 50/50 decision. Analysts look for a 2% annualized increase in real GDP in Q4 (the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow has been pointing higher, and for the last two quarters has seen the correct bias) as the economy sees relatively little payback, falling back to the pace seen in the first half of the year after an extremely strong Q3. Core PCE inflation meanwhile should be watched to see whether its recently large wedge with core CPI is maintained, remembering that core PCE inflation increased just 1.9% annualized over the six months to November.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 22/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | * |  | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 22/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 23/01/2024 | 0300/1200 | *** |  | JP | BOJ policy announcement |
| 23/01/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** |  | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 23/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 23/01/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 23/01/2024 | 1500/1600 | ** |  | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
| 23/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 23/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 23/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 23/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 24/01/2024 | 2145/1045 | *** |  | NZ | CPI inflation quarterly |
| 24/01/2024 | 2200/0900 | *** |  | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
| 24/01/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | | JP | Trade |
| 24/01/2024 | 0001/0001 | * | | UK | XpertHR pay deals for whole economy |
| 24/01/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
| 24/01/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** | | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
| 24/01/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
| 24/01/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** | | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
| 24/01/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 24/01/2024 | 1100/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24/01/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 24/01/2024 | 1445/0945 |  | CA | BOC Monetary Policy Report | |
| 24/01/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 24/01/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) |
| 24/01/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
| 24/01/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 24/01/2024 | 1530/1030 | | CA | BOC Governor Press Conference | |
| 24/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 24/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 25/01/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | PPI |
| 25/01/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
| 25/01/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 25/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** |  | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 25/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25/01/2024 | 1100/0600 | *** |  | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate |
| 25/01/2024 | 1100/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 25/01/2024 | 1315/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Deposit Rate |
| 25/01/2024 | 1315/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Main Refi Rate |
| 25/01/2024 | 1315/1415 | *** | | EU | ECB Marginal Lending Rate |
| 25/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 25/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 25/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | GDP |
| 25/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
| 25/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
| 25/01/2024 | 1345/1445 | | EU | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference | |
| 25/01/2024 | 1400/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 25/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 25/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | New Home Sales |
| 25/01/2024 | 1515/1615 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde ECB Podcast - latest monetary policy decisions | |
| 25/01/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 25/01/2024 | 1600/1100 | ** | | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 25/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 26/01/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** | | JP | Tokyo CPI |
| 26/01/2024 | 0001/0001 | ** | | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 26/01/2024 | 0700/0800 | * | | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 26/01/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | SE | Unemployment |
| 26/01/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | M3 |
| 26/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 26/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 26/01/2024 | 1600/1100 | | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
| 26/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.