MNI Global Week Ahead March 29 – April 2

Key Things to Watch:

• Wednesday, March 31 – Eurozone Inflation Data
  • Eurozone inflation data due Wednesday is likely to show another spike higher, with the Y/Y outcome edging closer to the ECB's target of close to but below 2%. Median estimates are looking for the March number to come in at 1.4% y/y, up from 0.9% in February.
  • Core inflation is seen unchanged, with the median forecast for a reading of 1.1% Y/Y. The ECB will certainly face communication challenges in the months ahead as the headline rate picks up, but there are few, if any, expectations of a tightening of the easy monetary accommodation.

• Wednesday, March 31 – Canada GDP
  • Gross domestic product is seen rising 0.5% in January following a slowdown of 0.1% in December as second-wave lockdowns were imposed. That rebound would put the economy on track for another solid increase in Q1 following the annualized Q4 gain of almost 10%.
  • Unexpected strength amid second-wave lockdowns has boosted expectations the BOC will taper QE at its April 21 meeting.
  • Investors should also look for whether there is a flash estimate for February.

• Friday, April 2 – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
  • U.S. job growth continued to improve through March, with Bloomberg predicting an increase of 630,000 jobs following a stronger-than-expected 379,000 gain in February.
  • That should mostly be driven by easing Covid restrictions as more of the population becomes vaccinated and by additional fiscal aid for households and businesses under President Biden's USD1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.
• The unemployment rate should dip slightly to 6% from 6.2% in February, though analysts say it shouldn't fall significantly lower anytime soon, likely hovering near there through at least the first half of the year.