MNI Global Week Ahead October 26 - 30

Key Things to Watch For:

• Tuesday, October 27 – U.S. Durable Goods New Orders
  • New orders of U.S. durable goods likely rose 0.5% in September after a 0.5% increase in August.
  • Excluding transportation, durable goods new orders should rise 0.4% in September following a stronger 0.6% gain in August.
  • Demand for durable goods is slowing, analysts say, and improvement seen earlier in the recovery is likely to remain muted.

• Thursday, October 29 – ECB Policy Decision
  • The European Central Bank meets Thursday amid an ever-worsening resurgence of Covid-19 cases and signs the economy has not only slowed in early Q4 but looks in danger of recording another period of contraction.
  • The ECB has two policy meetings left in 2020 and the October meeting comes without the accompaniment of a set of staff projections.
  • With a slowdown and pick-up in infections already part of the ECB thinking - although perhaps not quite this early into the autumn months - there is still the likelihood policymakers will stand pat in October, leaving the PEPP envelope unchanged at E1.35 trillion. However, there is a growing chance they could signal an increase in the PEPP or APP (or indeed both) at the December meeting to help stave off the slowdown and the growing deflationary risk.

• Thursday, October 29 – U.S. Q3 GDP (First Estimate)
  • The U.S. economy is set to rebound sharply in the third quarter, with markets forecasting Q3 GDP to grow by an annualized 31.8% following a record-setting 31.4% decline in Q2.
• Growth last quarter likely stems from significant job gains through the summer and savings from government stimulus checks in the spring.