MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: Payrolls Due, RBA & RBNZ Meets

The week ahead in data will see US Non-Farm Payrolls in the spotlight, despite the Friday release falling on a market holiday for Europe and others. The RBA and RBNZ are both due to meet, and ISM PMIs and German/French IP data will also be in focus in an otherwise quiet week for data.

MONDAY

Switzerland CPI: Swiss headline inflation is expected to ease by 0.2pp to +3.2% y/y in March, whilst prices tick up by +0.4pp on the month. This follows the surprise acceleration in February which contributed to fuel for a 50bp March hike. Consensus is looking for a further 25bps hike by the SNB in June, bringing rates to a possible cycle peak of 1.75%.

Final Manufacturing PMIs: March flash PMIs largely indicated stagnating business activity for the euro area, UK and US, underpinned by falling new orders. Meanwhile price developments set the path for further easing in PPI.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI: After entering contractionary territory in November, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is seen edging down by 0.2pp to 47.5 in March. This would be largely in line with MNI’s strongly correlated Chicago PMI March report, which saw contractionary new orders and production weighing down the index.

TUESDAY

RBA Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to pause its tightening cycle at its April 4 board meeting, but a 25bp hike is not out of the question as it continues to battle inflation persistently well in excess of its 2-3% target.

Another 25bps would be the sixth consecutive quarter-point increase and 11th cumulative hike since the Reserve began tightening from a record low 0.1% in May 2022 and would push the official cash rate to an 11-year high of 3.85%. A pause would mean the RBA slips further behind its international peers.

Eurozone PPI: After March flash HICP cooled to +6.9% y/y, February PPI data is due to show further slowing. Factory-gate inflation is expected to deflate on the month, with consensus pencilling in -0.4% m/m, whilst annualised prices are expected to cool by 1.8pp to +13.2% y/y. PPI eased sharply in January by 9.6pp to +15.0% y/y due to a steep decline in energy prices. The continuation of this trend has been foreshadowed by softening input/output charges in February and March PMI data.

US Factory Orders: US factory orders are anticipated to contract again in the February data, with -0.5% m/m pencilled in after -1.6% m/m in January in a continuation of a tepid trend underscored by weak demand.

WEDNESDAY

RBNZ Rate Decision: The RBNZ is seen extending its tightening cycle by 25 bps to 5.00% Wednesday, although a modest slowing of the economy may give policymakers an excuse to pause, especially if the RBA hold the day before.

Germany Factory Orders: A modest +0.5% m/m uptick in German manufacturing orders is expected in January, implying three quarters of m/m expansion after having contracted for eight out of 12 months in 2022.

France Industrial Production: After the January -1.9% m/m slump driven by a slowdown in transport production, a modest +0.5% m/m uptick in the February data is eyed.

Final Services PMIs: Services activity strengthened in eurozone PMIs in March, which will likely be reiterated by Italian and Spanish PMI releases and provide a substantial boost to Q1 growth, but also inflation after services inflation boosted the eurozone core CPI to a fresh high last week. UK and US services activity will also likely be confirmed as firmly expansionary.

US Trade Balance / ISM Services: The US trade deficit is likely to remain largely stable around the $68.3b mark in February. The ISM services index may edge down from the strong 55.1 February print, but will continue to convey strong demand bolstering overall activity.

THURSDAY

Germany Industrial Production: German industrial production jumped +3.5% m/m in January, as energy-intensive branches saw a marked expansion, assisted by falling energy prices and the introduction of price caps. Sector-wise, January industrial production was volatile. The February data is likely to cool, contracting by -0.3% m/m.

FRIDAY

US Nonfarm Payrolls: A continuation of labour market tightness is largely anticipated for the March non-farm payrolls report. NF payrolls are projected to rise around 240k, after the bumper +311k in February, whilst the unemployment rate will likely hold steady at 3.6%. Note that being Good Friday, it's a market holiday for Europe and US stocks are closed, so global market reactions will be delayed.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
03/04/2023	2350/0850	***		JP	Tankan
03/04/2023	0030/1030	*		AU	Building Approvals
03/04/2023	0030/1030	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
03/04/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
03/04/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
03/04/2023	0630/0830	***		CH	CPI
03/04/2023	0700/0300	*		TR	Turkey CPI
03/04/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/04/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/04/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/04/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/04/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
03/04/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
03/04/2023	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
03/04/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
03/04/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
03/04/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
03/04/2023	1430/1030	**		CA	BOC Business Outlook Survey
03/04/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
03/04/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
03/04/2023	2015/1615			US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
04/04/2023	0330/1330	***		AU	RBA Rate Decision
04/04/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
04/04/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	PPI
04/04/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
04/04/2023	0915/1015			UK	BOE Tenreyro Keynote Speech at RES Conference
04/04/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Building Permits
04/04/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
04/04/2023	1400/1000	**		US	IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
04/04/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Factory New Orders
04/04/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
04/04/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS quits Rate
04/04/2023	1630/1730			UK	BOE Pill Speech at ICMB
04/04/2023	1730/1330			US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
04/04/2023	2245/1845			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
05/04/2023	2300/0900	*		AU	IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI
05/04/2023	2300/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
05/04/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI
05/04/2023	0200/1400	***		NZ	RBNZ official cash rate decision
05/04/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Manufacturing Orders
05/04/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Industrial Production
05/04/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
05/04/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/04/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/04/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/04/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/04/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/04/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
05/04/2023	0900/1100	*		IT	Retail Sales
05/04/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
05/04/2023	0915/1015			UK	BOE Tenreyro Panellist at RES Conference
05/04/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
05/04/2023	1215/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
05/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Trade Balance
05/04/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (final)
05/04/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
05/04/2023	1400/1600			EU	ECB Lane Lecture at University of Cyprus
05/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
06/04/2023	0030/1030	**		AU	Trade Balance
06/04/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Services PMI
06/04/2023	0545/0745	**		CH	Unemployment
06/04/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Industrial Production
06/04/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Private Sector Production
06/04/2023	0730/0930	**		EU	IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06/04/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
06/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
06/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
06/04/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
06/04/2023	1400/1000	*		CA	Ivey PMI
06/04/2023	1400/1000			US	St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
06/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
07/04/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Foreign Trade
07/04/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Employment Report
07/04/2023	1900/1500	*		US	Consumer Credit