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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - RBNZ Decision, Canadian GDP and Eurozone CPI Top Docket

WEDNESDAY: RBNZ Rate Decision
The broader consensus looks for the RBNZ to hold steady (5.50%) at the upcoming policy meeting. This would be consistent with general softness in economic outcomes over recent months and a tick down in inflation expectations. More interest is likely to be in terms of the central bank's updated economic projections, particularly around the inflation and growth outlooks. Market pricing (OIS) has comfortably more than 1 cut priced in by October next year.

THURSDAY: Japan Unemployment
Japan labor market outcomes have cooled in recent quarters. The jobless rate is no longer declining, while the job-to-applicant ratio is also comfortably off late 2022 highs. A firmer labor market and a subsequent spillover to stronger wages growth is a critical part of BOJ's outlook in terms of hitting its inflation target (2%) sustainably. It's unlikely this data will shift the sentiment needle, as softer growth through Q3 will likely prevent a sharp improvement in Japan's labor market.

THURSDAY: Eurozone CPI Estimate

The November round of monthly flash Eurozone inflation data begins on Wednesday with Spain and Germany reporting, and the French, Italian, and Eurozone-wide figures printing on Thursday. After seeing disinflationary progress over the past couple of reports, including October delivering the first Y/Y headline HICP print below 3% since August 2021, the ECB will be closely watching this month's price dynamics ahead of its December meeting.

November HICP is expected to see further declines, to 2.7% Y/Y (2.9% prior) for headline and 3.9% Y/Y core (4.2% prior), which would only reinforce conviction that ECB rates have reached their peak. Energy is expected to continue contributing significantly to disinflation, both on a M/M and Y/Y basis, while there is broad expectation for core goods and services prices to also continue moderating. Also of note is labour market data from France, Germany, Italy, and the Eurozone, which will provide further insight into employment tightness and wage dynamics - key elements in the inflationary outlook.

THURSDAY: Canada GDP

GDP reports for Q3 and the separate monthly print for September/October advance are due on Thursday. Real GDP growth firmly missed both BoC and analyst expectations back in Q2 with -0.2% annualized, and there’s a sizeable chance it undershoots BoC forecasts again. The BoC pencilled in 0.8% back in its October MPR, revised down from an initial 1.5% back in July, whilst the advance September print indicated -0.1% annualized.

This isn’t set in stone though, as the latest retail sales report firmed more than expected in September (even if ex gasoline and autos were weaker and suggest less momentum into Q4), whilst monthly GDP by industry can differ from the quarterly expenditure approach the BoC focuses on. With the economy already perceived in balance or possibly mild excess supply, anything materially weaker than a flat Q3 GDP print could see a pulling forward of the timing of the first rate cut currently seen around June.


DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
27/11/20231100/1100**UK CBI Distributive Trades
27/11/20231400/1500EU ECB's Lagarde statement at ECON hearing
27/11/20231500/1000***US New Home Sales
27/11/20231530/1030**US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
27/11/20231530/1530UK DMO Quarterly Investor/GEMM Consultation Meetings
27/11/20231630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
27/11/20231630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
27/11/20231800/1300*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
27/11/20231800/1300*US US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
28/11/20230001/0001*UK BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
28/11/20230030/1130**AU Retail Trade
28/11/20230700/0800*DE GFK Consumer Climate
28/11/20230745/0845**FR Consumer Sentiment
28/11/20230900/1000**EU M3
28/11/20231000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
28/11/20231355/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
28/11/20231400/0900**US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
28/11/20231400/0900**US FHFA Home Price Index
28/11/20231400/0900**US FHFA Quarterly Price Index
28/11/20231400/0900**US FHFA Home Price Index
28/11/20231400/0900**US FHFA Quarterly Price Index
28/11/20231500/1000***US Conference Board Consumer Confidence
28/11/20231500/1000**US Richmond Fed Survey
28/11/20231500/1000US Fed Governor Christopher Waller
28/11/20231500/1000US Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
28/11/20231530/1030**US Dallas Fed Services Survey
28/11/20231630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
28/11/20231630/1130**US US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
28/11/20231700/1700UK BOE's Haskel UK Inflation Speech
28/11/20231800/1300**US US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
28/11/20231830/1930EU ECB's Lane lecture on Macroeconomic policy
28/11/20232325/1825CA BOC Executive Director of Supervision Ron Morrow speech.
29/11/20230030/1130***AU CPI Inflation Monthly
29/11/20230030/1130***AU Quarterly construction work done
29/11/20230100/1400***NZ RBNZ official cash rate decision
29/11/20230630/0730***DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI
29/11/20230700/0800***SE GDP
29/11/20230700/0800**SE Retail Sales
29/11/20230700/1500**CN MNI China Liquidity Survey
29/11/20230800/0900***ES HICP (p)
29/11/20230800/0900**SE Economic Tendency Indicator
29/11/20230900/1000**IT ISTAT Business Confidence
29/11/20230900/1000**IT ISTAT Consumer Confidence
29/11/20230900/1000***DE Bavaria CPI
29/11/20230930/0930**UK BOE M4
29/11/20230930/0930**UK BOE Lending to Individuals
29/11/20231000/1100**EU EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
29/11/20231000/1100**IT PPI
29/11/20231000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
29/11/20231000/1100***DE Saxony CPI
29/11/20231200/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
29/11/20231300/1400***DE HICP (p)
29/11/20231330/0830*CA Current account
29/11/20231330/0830***US GDP
29/11/20231330/0830**US Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
29/11/20231530/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
29/11/20231845/1345US Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
29/11/20231900/1400US Fed Beige Book
30/11/20230030/1130*AU Building Approvals
30/11/20230030/1130*AU Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure
30/11/20230130/0930***CN CFLP Manufacturing PMI
30/11/20230130/0930**CN CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
30/11/20230700/0800**DE Retail Sales
30/11/20230700/0800**DE Import/Export Prices
30/11/20230730/0830**CH Retail Sales
30/11/20230730/0730UK DMO to publish gilt operations calendar for FQ4
30/11/20230745/0845**FR PPI
30/11/20230745/0845**FR Consumer Spending
30/11/20230745/0845***FR GDP (f)
30/11/20230745/0845***FR HICP (p)
30/11/20230800/0900**CH KOF Economic Barometer
30/11/20230800/0900EU ECB General Council Meeting
30/11/20230855/0955**DE Unemployment
30/11/20231000/1100***EU HICP (p)
30/11/20231000/1100**EU Unemployment
30/11/20231000/1100***IT HICP (p)
30/11/20231330/0830***US Jobless Claims
30/11/20231330/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
30/11/20231330/0830***CA GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts
30/11/20231330/0830***CA Gross Domestic Product by Industry
30/11/20231330/0830***CA CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined
30/11/20231330/0830*CA Payroll employment
30/11/20231330/0830**US Personal Income and Consumption
30/11/20231330/1430EU ECB's Lagarde at 5th ECB Forum
30/11/20231400/1400UKDecision Maker Panel Data
30/11/20231405/0905US New York Fed's John Williams
30/11/20231445/0945***US MNI Chicago PMI
30/11/20231500/1000**US NAR Pending Home Sales
30/11/20231530/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
30/11/20231600/1600UK BOE's Greene speech at Leeds University
01/12/20232200/0900**AU IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/12/20230030/0930**JP IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/12/20230145/0945**CN IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/12/20230800/0900***CH GDP
01/12/20230815/0915**ES IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/12/20230845/0945**IT S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/12/20230850/0950**FR IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/12/20230855/0955**DE IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/12/20230900/1000***IT GDP (f)
01/12/20230900/1000**EU IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/12/20230930/0930**UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/12/20231000/1100EU ECB's Elderson participates in ECB forum panel
01/12/20231130/1230EU ECB's Lagarde conversation at 5th ECB Forum
01/12/2023-***US Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/12/20231330/0830***CA Labour Force Survey
01/12/20231445/0945***US IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
01/12/20231500/1000***US ISM Manufacturing Index
01/12/20231500/1000*US Construction Spending
01/12/20231500/1000US Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
01/12/20231800/1300**US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com

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