MNI Global Week Ahead September 7 - 11

Key Things to Watch For:

• Thursday, September 10 – ECB Policy Decision
  
  
  • The ECB's Governing Council meets Thursday and market expectations are for no change in policy, with the deposit rate left at -0.5% PSPP purchases unchanged and the envelope of the PEPP remaining at EUR1.35 trillion.
• Alongside the policy decision, focus will be on the staff projections for both growth and inflation over the next three years and whether President Christine Lagarde addresses the issue of the relative euro strength and whether it is a problem for some Council members in her press conference.

• Thursday, September 10 – U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
  
  
  • U.S. initial jobless claims filed through September 5 should fall to 830,000 from 881,000 in the previous week.
  • The Labor Department this week adjusted its seasonal adjustment methodology, using additive factors to account for a months-long bout of economic instability rather than the multiplicative factors which are typically used.
• Initial and continuing claims figures in the coming weeks won't be directly comparable to levels reported through August 22 and will appear much lower even absent actual labor market improvement.

• Friday, September 11 – U.S. CPI
  
  
  • U.S. CPI should soften in August, with markets expecting a 0.3% gain following a stronger-than-expected 0.6% increase in July. Gains in energy prices, notably gasoline prices, should prop up headline inflation in August.
• Core CPI should increase by 0.2% after rising 0.6% in July, marking the third consecutive increase after large declines in the springtime. Nearly all core components are forecast to rise as state lockdowns which sent prices spiraling continue to unwind.