Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The week ahead sees a pick up in data releases, with a big week for UK data, as well as Canadian CPI headlining the schedule.
Europe:
Germany ZEW Index (Tuesday): Another substantial slide is anticipated for the German ZEW survey, with expectations projected to fall 6.2 points to -60.0 and the current situation assessment to -52.0. would see the expectations index only just remaining above GFC lows. Energy prices, persistent supply issues, imminent tightening by the ECB and concerns regarding gas supply into the year-end all remain key concerns driving the index down.
Germany PPI (Friday): German factory-gate inflation will likely ease for the second consecutive month in the July data, down 0.7pp to +32.0% y/y, despite the month-on-month seen inching up again by 0.1pp to +0.7% m/m.
UK:
Labour Report (Tuesday): Another strong labour report is expected, with the ILO unemployment rate to remain at 3.8%, and the jobless claims change to also be in the low negatives following -20.0k in May. The focus will again be on average weekly earnings, which will likely slow to +4.6% 3m/yoy and inch up to +4.5% 3m/yoy ex. bonuses. Real wages in the UK are set to fall again in June, as pay deals and bonus payments fail to keep pace with soaring inflation.
CPI (Wednesday): On that note, a 0.4pp acceleration to +9.8% y/y is projected for the headline UK inflation rate in July, as CPI moves closer to the +13.3% y/y October peak as anticipated by the Bank of England. Following the early-August 50bp hike, major upside surprises could nudge the Bank towards 50bp again in the September meeting, despite a five-quarter recession set to commence in Q4.
Retail Sales (Friday): July retail sales should contract for the fourth consecutive month, albeit a little softer at -3.3% y/y (versus -5.8% y/y in June). As disposable incomes continue to feel the squeeze of soaring inflation with no signs of easing, retail will continue to suffer into year-end.
US:
Industrial Production (Tuesday): A modest improvement to +0.3% m/m in July (vs -0.2% in June) could see a revival of optimism for the US industrial sector. This follows upside surprises in European data, largely underpinned by a rebound in domestic energy sectors.
Retail Sales (Wednesday): The July data is projected to see retail sales all but stall, as consumers tighten their purse strings at +8.5% y/y inflation. Easing price pressures going forwards will likely see an improvement in consumer sentiment, however a lag is likely before retail picks up again in the holiday season.
Canada:
CPI (Tuesday): A substantial 0.5pp slowdown to +7.6% y/y is expected for July inflation, coming off the June peak. This would be the first month of easing annualised CPI since June 2021, and welcome news ahead of the BOC’s September meeting.
Source: MNI / Bloomberg
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 15/08/2022 | 2350/0850 |  | JP | GDP First Estimate | |
| 15/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 15/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 15/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** |  | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/08/2022 | 1300/0900 | * | | CA | Home Sales – CREA (Canadian real estate association) |
| 15/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 15/08/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 15/08/2022 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 15/08/2022 | 2000/1600 | ** | | US | TICS |
| 16/08/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** |  | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 16/08/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 16/08/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 16/08/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 16/08/2022 | 0900/1100 | * |  | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16/08/2022 | 1215/0815 | ** | | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 16/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | CPI |
| 16/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Housing Starts |
| 16/08/2022 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 16/08/2022 | 1315/0915 | *** | | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/08/2022 | 0130/1130 | *** |  | AU | Quarterly wage price index |
| 17/08/2022 | 0200/1400 | *** |  | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
| 17/08/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Producer Prices |
| 17/08/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Consumer inflation report |
| 17/08/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** |  | NO | Norway GDP |
| 17/08/2022 | 0830/0930 | * | | UK | ONS House Price Index |
| 17/08/2022 | 0900/1100 | * | | EU | Employment |
| 17/08/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | GDP (p) |
| 17/08/2022 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 17/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Retail Sales |
| 17/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Business Inventories |
| 17/08/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 17/08/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 18/08/2022 | 0130/1130 | *** | | AU | Labor force survey |
| 18/08/2022 | 0700/0900 | *** | | NO | Norges Bank Rate Decision |
| 18/08/2022 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (f) |
| 18/08/2022 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Construction Production |
| 18/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | * | | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
| 18/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 18/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 18/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 18/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | NAR existing home sales |
| 18/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Services Revenues |
| 18/08/2022 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | leading indicators |
| 18/08/2022 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 18/08/2022 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 30 Year Bond |
| 18/08/2022 | 1715/1915 | | EU | ECB Schnabel Presentation at IHK Reception | |
| 19/08/2022 | 2301/0001 | ** | | UK | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 19/08/2022 | 2330/0830 | | JP | Natl CPI | |
| 19/08/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Retail Sales |
| 19/08/2022 | 0600/0700 | *** | | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 19/08/2022 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | PPI |
| 19/08/2022 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | EZ Current Acc |
| 19/08/2022 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | Retail Trade |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.