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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: UK CPI Close to Peak

MNI (London)

UK inflation and labour market data, along with the Autumn fiscal report headline what is an otherwise quiet docket. US retail sales and IP will also be closely watched.

MONDAY

Eurozone Industrial Production: September euro area IP is anticipated to have expanded by a moderate +0.4% m/m, boosted by Germany’s upbeat consumer and capital goods production. This represents a slowdown from slowing from +1.5% m/m in August, which will largely be on the back of Italy and France’s September contractions.

TUESDAY

UK Labour Report: The September employment report will likely see the labour market remain tight, with unemployment remaining at the 1974-low of 3.5%.

The employment rate remained 1% below pre-pandemic levels in the August report and employment is forecast to decrease by 30k following 109k in August. Low employment has underpinned market tightness pushing up wage growth.

Consensus is looking for average weekly earnings growth of +5.9%, close to the hot +6.0% recorded in August which was the strongest growth outside of the pandemic period.

France/Spain Final CPI: Final prints for October CPI are expected to confirm +1.3% m/m and +7.1% y/y for France and +0.1% m/m and +7.3% y/y for Spain. Despite hovering at similar year-on-year levels, this reading constitutes a fresh euro-high for France, but the third consecutive month of decelerating prices for Spain. The ECB faces the challenge of unified policy-making for diverging inflationary growth.

Germany ZEW Survey: The German ZEW survey is expected to signal improvements again in November, with expectations to improve substantially by over 9 points to -50.0, and the current situation index by around 4 points to -68.0.

Whether this improvement materialises is not a given, following the October surge in inflation to +11.6% y/y (HICP). With prices yet to see any cooling, this remains the downward driver for the German industry. Pessimistic outlooks regarding global demand and weak growth in China will likely see production weaken into year-end.

Eurozone Flash Q3 GDP: The second Q3 GDP estimate is due on Wednesday, to confirm that the bloc slowed to +0.2% q/q, the weakest growth since the Q2 2021 lockdown rebound.

US PPI: Final demand PPI will quicken marginally from September, anticipated to expand by +0.5% m/m in October (+0.4% q/q ex. Food and energy). Downside risks to this data has been flagged by the ISM report, which saw raw material prices decrease for the first time in over two years.

Headline year-on-year growth will likely slow by 0.2pp to +8.3% y/y, easing further from the March peak of +11.3% y/y.

Factory-gate inflation remains substantially softer higher in the euro area, which recorded +41.9% y/y in September. High economic exposure to the Ukraine war has deepened the eurozone energy crisis and severely hampered supply chains which are only recently seeing some relief.

Canada Manufacturing: Canadian manufacturing is forecasted to contract for the fifth consecutive month in September, albeit less sharply at -0.5% m/m following the -2.0% m/m slide in August.

WEDNESDAY

UK Inflation Report: October UK inflation is forecast to reach +10.7% y/y (up from +10.1% y/y in Sep), with prices accelerating by +1.7% m/m alone. This is largely anticipated to be the peak inflation rate, and core could inch down by 0.1pp to +6.4% y/y implying a September peak. Markets are anticipating a 50bp hike at the December meeting, which will unlikely be shifted by an upside inflation print as the MPC looks to slow the pace.

Canada CPI: Canadian inflation is projected to edge down by 0.1pp in October to +6.8% y/y, whilst prices are expected to expand by +0.7% m/m following +0.1% m/m in September. Fiscal support at the gas pump has largely underpinned the slowdown, yet food and shelter continue to expand.

Core CPI is seen cooling to +5.9% y/y (from +6.0%). Following the downside surprise to US October CPI, a lower Canadian reading suggests the BoC could look to slow to 25bp in December.

US Retail Trade / Industrial Production: October retail sales should improve to +0.9% m/m after flatlining in September. Survey data has pointed towards stronger auto and gas sales in October, which will boost the headline print.

IP looks to see only modest +0.2% m/m growth (versus +0.4% in Sep), in line with the ISM manufacturing survey which slowed to 50.2 in October, hovering just above the breakeven point of 50. New orders have now contracted for two consecutive months as demand wanes.

THURSDAY

UK Autumn Statement with New OBR forecasts / Updated DMO Remit: The market will be watching where tax rises/ spending cuts are focused on in the Autumn fiscal statement, and key focus will be on the OBR's updated forecasts. The DMO will also update its remit.

Eurozone Final CPI / Construction: Eurozone inflation is set to be confirmed at a fresh high of +10.7% y/y in October, having surprised substantially to the upside in the prelim print. Construction data for the bloc is also due on Thursday, likely to contract again in September and deepening the downturn. The S&P Global PMI has continued to signal contraction since May.

FRIDAY

UK GfK Consumer Confidence / Retail Sales: UK consumer confidence is unlikely to see much relief in November, anticipated to hold steady at -47, just two points above the September record low. Disposable incomes are feeling the squeeze of higher food, fuel, energy and mortgage prices. This data underlines the concerns at the BOE over a slowing economy.

Retail sales are forecast to see a modest recovery to +0.6% m/m from the September contraction, whilst remaining deeply contractive at -6.5% y/y compared to 2021.


DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
14/11/20220001/0001*UK Rightmove House Prices Index
14/11/20221000/1100EUECB Panetta Speech at CEPR-EABCN Conference
14/11/20221000/1100**EU Industrial Production
14/11/2022-UK House of Commons Returns
14/11/2022-TH APEC Leaders’ Summit
14/11/20221345/0845CA BOC's Macklem opening remarks at diversity conference
14/11/20221600/1100**US NY Fed survey of consumer expectations
14/11/20221615/1715EU ECB de Guindos Speech at Euro Finance Week
14/11/20221630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
14/11/20221630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
14/11/20221630/1130US Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard
14/11/20222330/1830US New York Fed's John Williams
15/11/20220200/1000***CN Fixed-Asset Investment
15/11/20220200/1000***CN Retail Sales
15/11/20220200/1000***CN Industrial Output
15/11/20220200/1000**CN Surveyed Unemployment Rate
15/11/20220700/0700***UK Labour Market Survey
15/11/20220700/0800***SE Inflation report
15/11/20220745/0845***FR HICP (f)
15/11/20220800/0900***ES HICP (f)
15/11/20221000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
15/11/20221000/1100***DE ZEW Current Conditions Index
15/11/20221000/1100***DE ZEW Current Expectations Index
15/11/20221000/1100*EU Trade Balance
15/11/20221000/1100*EU Employment
15/11/20221000/1100***EU GDP First Estimates
15/11/20221130/1130**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
15/11/2022-ID G20 Summit in Indonesia
15/11/2022-TH APEC Leaders’ Summit
15/11/20221330/0830***US PPI
15/11/20221330/0830**US Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/11/20221355/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
15/11/20221400/0900*CA CREA Existing Home Sales
15/11/20221400/0900US Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker
15/11/20221400/0900CA BOC Deputy Kozicki moderates panel on diversity
15/11/20221400/0900US Fed Governor Lisa Cook
15/11/20221500/1000US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr
15/11/20221730/1830EU ECB Elderson Speech at Euro Finance Week
16/11/20220030/1130***AU Quarterly wage price index
16/11/20220700/0700***UK Consumer inflation report
16/11/20220700/0700***UK Producer Prices
16/11/20220900/1000***IT HICP (f)
16/11/20220930/0930*UK ONS House Price Index
16/11/20221000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
16/11/20221200/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
16/11/2022-ID G20 Summit in Indonesia
16/11/2022-TH APEC Leaders’ Summit
16/11/20221315/0815**CA CMHC Housing Starts
16/11/20221330/0830***CA CPI
16/11/20221330/0830***US Retail Sales
16/11/20221330/0830**US Import/Export Price Index
16/11/20221415/0915***US Industrial Production
16/11/20221415/1415UKBOE Treasury Select Committee hearing on Nov Monetary Policy Report
16/11/20221450/0950US New York Fed's John Williams
16/11/20221500/1000*US Business Inventories
16/11/20221500/1000**US NAHB Home Builder Index
16/11/20221500/1600EU ECB Lagarde Speech at European School Frankfurt Anniversary
16/11/20221500/1600EU ECB Panetta at ABI's Executive Committee Meeting
16/11/20221500/1000US Fed Vice chair for Supervision Michael Barr
16/11/20221530/1030**US DOE weekly crude oil stocks
16/11/20221800/1300**US US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
16/11/20221935/1435US Fed Governor Christopher Waller
16/11/20222100/1600**US TICS
17/11/20220030/1130***AU Labor force survey
17/11/20220720/0220ID Bank of Indonesia Rate Decision
17/11/20221000/1100**EU Construction Production
17/11/20221000/1100***EU HICP (f)
17/11/20221230/0730US Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
17/11/20221230/1230UKBOE Pill Speech at the Bristol Festival of Economics
17/11/2022-UK Autumn Statement with New OBR forecasts / Updated DMO Remit
17/11/2022-TH APEC Leaders’ Summit
17/11/20221300/0800US St. Louis Fed's James Bullard
17/11/20221330/0830**US Jobless Claims
17/11/20221330/0830***US Housing Starts
17/11/20221330/0830**US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
17/11/20221330/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
17/11/20221415/0915US Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
17/11/20221430/1430UK BOE Tenreyro Speech at Asociacion Argentina de Economia Politica
17/11/20221440/0940US Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
17/11/20221530/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
17/11/20221540/1040US Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
17/11/20221540/1040US Fed Governor Philip Jefferson
17/11/20221600/1100**US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
17/11/20221800/1300**US US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
17/11/20221845/1345US Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
18/11/20220001/0001**UK Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
18/11/20220700/0700***UK Retail Sales
18/11/20220700/0800**SE Unemployment
18/11/20220700/0800**NO Norway GDP
18/11/20220830/0930EU ECB Lagarde Speech at European Banking Congress
18/11/2022-EU COP 27 Ends
18/11/2022-TH APEC Leaders’ Summit
18/11/20221330/0830*CA Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
18/11/20221500/1000***US NAR existing home sales
18/11/20221500/1000*US Services Revenues
18/11/20221715/1715UK BOE Haskel Panels Ditchley Economics Conference
19/11/2022-TH APEC Leaders’ Summit
19/11/20221345/1345UK BOE Dhingra Panels Ditchley Economics Conference
19/11/20221845/1345US Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic

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