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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI US Inflation Insight: Softer Housing Helps Ensure Dec Cut
MNI INTERVIEW2: Poland To Push For EU Defence Fund
MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: UK CPI in Focus
The week ahead will see eurozone consumer and business sentiment indicators and May flash PMIs in focus.
MONDAY
Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence: Consensus is pencilling in just under a one-point improvement from -17.5 in the May flash consumer sentiment indicator for the eurozone. Post-pandemic reopening effects, lower energy costs and fading recessionary fears have boosted eurozone consumer sentiment over recent months. The indicator is sitting over ten points higher than the Sep '22 record low and the least negative since the Feb '22 level (pre-Russia-Ukraine war).
Further detail will be released a week later, whereby we will be looking for a continuation in cooling consumer price expectations, after in April they were the softest since December 2020.
TUESDAY
May Flash PMIs: Across Europe, May PMIs are expected to show continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, set to remain firmly in contractive territory, whilst the US teeters on the edge of stalling business activity. Services PMIs are likely to cool somewhat but remain strong as robust demand prevails.
WEDNESDAY
RBNZ Rate Decision: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely increase the Official Cash Rate again at its May 24 meeting, with markets and commentators tipping another 25-50bp from its current 5.25% despite emerging signs of moderating inflationary pressures. The market will watch closely for an update to the peak rate forecast. See our RBNZ watch here for more: https://marketnews.com/mni-rbnz-watch-hike-expecte...
UK Inflation Report: UK inflation is expected to cool by 1.9pp to +8.1% y/y in April, whilst prices continue to tick up on a short-term basis by +0.6% m/m. Core CPI is holding steady again at +6.2% y/y for a third consecutive month, underscoring sticky-core concerns at the BOE.
At the May policy meeting, the BOE upgraded its inflation forecasts for the 12-month horizon, with 2024 Q2 CPI seen at 3.4%, up from 1.0% expected in the February forecasting round. 2023 Q2 CPI is seen 0.3pp lower at +8.2%. The bulk of upside revision was due to stronger food inflation, currently running at a historical high. The MPC projection point to inflation risks as "skewed significantly to the upside".
Germany IFO Survey: The IFO survey is expected to ease slightly across the business climate, current and expectations indicators in May, after business sentiment edged up for a sixth consecutive month in April. Easing energy prices, cooling CPI and less-bleak global demand outlooks have assisted the recent recovery. However, with the German manufacturing PMI slipping further into contractionary territory and ZEW expectations taking another hit in May, growth optimism is faltering.
US FOMC Minutes: The May FOMC delivered a 25bp hike, which is looking like the last of the cycle. The minutes will be closely watched on Wednesday for a hint of a pause at the June meeting.
THURSDAY
Germany Consumer Confidence / Final GDP: Germany’s forward-looking GfK consumer sentiment indicator is projected to improve by a further 1.4 points to -24.3 in June, representing an eighth consecutive increase. Both economic and income expectations rebounded significantly recently, with income expectations alone recovered to pre-Russia-Ukraine war levels.
Nonetheless, the indicator remains below pre-pandemic levels, with the propensity to buy subindex remaining downtrodden.
Final Q1 GDP data is also due, likely to confirm that the eurozone’s largest economy stalled in Q1 at 0.0% q/q growth. A downside revision would see the German economy having dipped into a technical recession, following the -0.4% q/q Q4 contraction. The release will include detail on GDP aggregates, which will likely see another fall in household consumption, with retail activity having contracted m/m for all of Q1 (albeit with some revival in the service sector).
France Manufacturing Sentiment: French manufacturing sentiment will likely remain downtrodden in May, after dipping by three points in April to 101. This was the lowest since November as overall order books and firms' production expectations fell.
US GDP: The US GDP second estimate for Q1 follows the first estimate of +1.1% q/q annualised, a deceleration from +2.6% q/q recorded in Q4 2022. The +3.7% annualised jump in consumer spending despite stubbornly high inflation is likely to ease off in Q2.
FRIDAY
UK Retail Sales: Consensus is forecasting a small improvement in April retail sales to +0.2% m/m, after the March dip, whereby wet weather conditions supported the -0.9% m/m contraction. The May consumer sentiment indicator posted a fourth consecutive improvement, albeit remains firmly in pessimistic territory, implying little rebound in spending for now.
France Consumer Sentiment: French consumer confidence is expected to edge up another point in May to 84, remaining markedly below the long-run average of 100. With the propensity to make major purchases having recently weakened further, French consumer spending looks to remain pressured for the near future.
Italy Consumer / Business Sentiment: Italian consumer confidence is seen edging up again after rising to a February 2022 high of 105.5. Business sentiment is seeing cooling for a second month, due to soft production and order book expectations.
US Durable Goods Orders / Personal Income & Consumption: The April preliminary data is expected to show a -1.0% m/m contraction in durable goods orders, after aircraft orders underpinned the strong +3.2% m/m March reading. Excluding transportation, a more modest -0.2% m/m decline is pencilled in, following +0.2% m/m in March. Demand conditions in the US remain muted, with the ISM manufacturing PMI New Orders subindex signalling an eight-month trend of falling orders in April, albeit the rate of which is now easing.
US personal income and spending data for April is also due, expected to grow +0.4% m/m for both, an uptick from stalling spending in March. Services spending will likely again outweigh softer goods outlays.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
22/05/2023 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | Construction Production | |
22/05/2023 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB de Guindos Opens ECB/EIOPA Workshop | ||
22/05/2023 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB Elderson Guest Lecture Utrecht University | ||
22/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | ||
22/05/2023 | 1400/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) | |
22/05/2023 | 1415/1615 | EU | ECB Lane Panels OeNB Economics SUERF Conference | ||
22/05/2023 | 1430/1530 | UK | DMO Quarterly Investor/GEMM Consultation Meetings | ||
22/05/2023 | 1500/1100 | US | Fed's Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic | ||
22/05/2023 | 1505/1105 | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | ||
22/05/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
22/05/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
22/05/2023 | 1600/1700 | UK | DMO Quarterly Investor/GEMM Consultation Meetings | ||
23/05/2023 | 2300/0900 | *** | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI | |
23/05/2023 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI | |
23/05/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** | UK | Public Sector Finances | |
23/05/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
23/05/2023 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
23/05/2023 | 0715/0915 | EU | ECB de Guindos Address at European Financial Integration Conf | ||
23/05/2023 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
23/05/2023 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
23/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account | |
23/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) | |
23/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) | |
23/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) | |
23/05/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash | |
23/05/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** | UK | S&P Global Services PMI flash | |
23/05/2023 | 0830/0930 | *** | UK | S&P Global Composite PMI flash | |
23/05/2023 | 0900/1000 | * | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
23/05/2023 | 0915/1015 | UK | BOE Bailey, Pill, Tenreyro, Mann at MPR Hearing | ||
23/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index | |
23/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index | |
23/05/2023 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
23/05/2023 | 1300/0900 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | ||
23/05/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) | |
23/05/2023 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) | |
23/05/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales | |
23/05/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey | |
23/05/2023 | 1445/1545 | UK | BOE Haskel Panellist at Richmond Fed Conference | ||
23/05/2023 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill | |
23/05/2023 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note | |
24/05/2023 | 0200/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision | |
24/05/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** | UK | Consumer inflation report | |
24/05/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** | UK | Producer Prices | |
24/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | IFO Business Climate Index | |
24/05/2023 | 0830/0930 | * | UK | ONS House Price Index | |
24/05/2023 | 0930/1030 | UK | BOE Bailey Keynote Speech at Mansion House Net Zero Summit | ||
24/05/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | UK | CBI Industrial Trends | |
24/05/2023 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
24/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises | |
24/05/2023 | 1300/1500 | ** | BE | BNB Business Sentiment | |
24/05/2023 | 1300/1400 | UK | BOE Bailey Frieside Chat at WSJ CEO Council Summit | ||
24/05/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
24/05/2023 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note | |
24/05/2023 | 1700/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note | |
24/05/2023 | 1745/1945 | EU | ECB Lagarde Opens Anniversary of ECB Event | ||
24/05/2023 | 1800/1400 | * | US | FOMC Statement | |
25/05/2023 | 0600/0800 | *** | DE | GDP (f) | |
25/05/2023 | 0600/0800 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate | |
25/05/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Unemployment | |
25/05/2023 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment | |
25/05/2023 | 0700/0900 | ** | ES | PPI | |
25/05/2023 | 0900/1100 | EU | ECB de Guindos Presents ECB Annual Report 2022 | ||
25/05/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | UK | CBI Distributive Trades | |
25/05/2023 | 1100/0700 | * | TR | Turkey Benchmark Rate | |
25/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Jobless Claims | |
25/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
25/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment | |
25/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | GDP | |
25/05/2023 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales | |
25/05/2023 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks | |
25/05/2023 | 1430/1030 | US | Boston Fed's Susan Collins | ||
25/05/2023 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index | |
25/05/2023 | 1630/1730 | UK | BOE Haskel Speech at Peterson Institute | ||
25/05/2023 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note | |
26/05/2023 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Tokyo CPI | |
26/05/2023 | 0130/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade | |
26/05/2023 | 0600/0700 | *** | UK | Retail Sales | |
26/05/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales | |
26/05/2023 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | PPI | |
26/05/2023 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Sentiment | |
26/05/2023 | 0740/0940 | EU | ECB Lane Panels Dubrovnik Econ Conference | ||
26/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence | |
26/05/2023 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence | |
26/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders | |
26/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Personal Income and Consumption | |
26/05/2023 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories | |
26/05/2023 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | Final Michigan Sentiment Index | |
26/05/2023 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.