MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: UK CPI & Wages in Focus

UK data will be in the spotlight for the week ahead, with the BOE looking for surprises to labour and inflation data, capable of paving a path for either a hike or pause from the MPC in May.

MONDAY

Italy Final HICP: The final Italian March inflation print will likely confirm prices rose by +0.8% m/m and +8.2% y/y, slowing further from the October/November peak driven largely by cooling energy prices.

TUESDAY

UK Labour Report: The UK February unemployment rate is seen edging up by 0.1pp to 3.8% as the labour market cools slightly. Earnings data should show wage inflation easing in February, with weekly earnings (3m/yoy) seen softening by 0.6pp to +5.1% and ex. bonus down 0.3pp at +6.2%. The latest UK labour market data showed a continuation in the trend of slowing vacancies. Tentative signs that wages have peaked are beginning to materialise, which the upcoming report is likely to reiterate.

Germany ZEW Survey: ZEW Expectations are forecasted to edge up by around 2.5 points to 15.5 in the April ZEW survey of financial market experts, after a sharp March decline fuelled by banking-sector volatility of the SVB and Credit Suisse turmoil. The April survey will reflect risk sentiment following these events.

Canada CPI: Canadian March CPI appears set to cool for a ninth month by about one point from the February +5.2% y/y print. The BoC held the overnight rate at 4.5% on Wednesday as unanimously expected for the second meeting running. The Bank’s latest Q1 estimate was revised down to 5.2% (-0.2pp) in light of recent cooling of headline pressures and is now seen slowing further to 3.3% in Q2.

WEDNESDAY

UK CPI: In March, UK inflation is projected to have cooled further. Consensus is eyeing a 0.6pp reduction on headline CPI to +9.8% y/y, although higher by 0.5% m/m. This follows the uptick on annualised inflation to 10.4% y/y in February, boosted by services inflation which pushed core CPI up for the first time in five months. This provided the hawks on the BOE MPC with ammunition to push for the recent 25bp hike. Another upside surprise increases the chance of a second 25bp hike in May, yet markets are not yet fully convinced, pricing around 20bp at the time of writing.

Eurozone Final HICP: The final March print is set to confirm that Eurozone HICP cooled by 1.6pp to +6.9% y/y, with prices rising +0.9% m/m. Despite cooling headline inflation, core HICP remains a key concern for the ECB, after hotter services prices saw core edge up by 0.1pp to a fresh euro-era high. Strong service activity flagged by recent PMI data is adding to sticky service-inflation troubles.

Should an upwards revision to Monday’s Italian final print materialise, this would make a minor upwards revision to the final eurozone print possible after the +0.1pp French revisions.

THURDAY

Germany PPI: Cooling energy prices will likely assist another fall in producer prices in the German March data. PPI is seen falling -0.8% m/m, easing by 6.2pp to +9.6% y/y, substantially lower than the record peak of +45.8% y/y recorded in August/September. Note that January and February headline PPI will likely be revised down in the March release as the delayed effects of the electricity and gas price breaks will be taken into account by Destatis retrospectively.

Eurozone Flash Consumer Confidence: After remaining broadly stable in March, the eurozone economic sentiment index is seen ending up by around one point to -18.3 in April, likely again signalling tentative signs of purchasing intentions improving. Whether this will translate into positive growth in the near future remains clouded, with the index and spending appetite still remaining depressed in the most recent retail data.

FRIDAY

UK Consumer Confidence / Retail Sales: UK consumer confidence is also anticipated to edge up by one point, to -35 in the GfK April report. Despite at a 12-month high, the indicator remains severely depressed, indicating that spending will remain pressured in the near term against the current economic backdrop of persistently high inflation.

Retail sales are broadly projected to contract in March, by around -0.5% m/m after discounts boosted February numbers. The March CBI report implies an upside surprise is on the cards, yet this report is often volatile. According to the ONS, March sales would only need to be stronger than -1.7% m/m for retail to be a positive contribution to Q1 GDP.

Flash April PMIs: April PMI data across Europe are anticipated to edge up across manufacturing, albeit remaining in contractionary territory as output remains subdued. PMIs will likely cool marginally across services, remaining firmly in growth territory. US manufacturing is expected to stall at slightly contractive 49.2, whilst services are seen slowing by 1.1 points to 51.5, remaining softer than European services prints.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
17/04/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
17/04/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/04/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Wholesale Trade
17/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
17/04/2023	1300/1400			UK	BOE Cunliffe Speech at Innovate Finance Global Summit
17/04/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
17/04/2023	1500/1700			EU	ECB Lagarde Speech at Council on Foreign Relations
17/04/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
17/04/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
17/04/2023	1645/1245			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
17/04/2023	2000/1600	**		US	TICS
18/04/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
18/04/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Retail Sales
18/04/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Industrial Output
18/04/2023	0200/1000	**		CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate
18/04/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
18/04/2023	0900/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
18/04/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
18/04/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
18/04/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
18/04/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
18/04/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
18/04/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
18/04/2023	1300/1500			EU	ECB Elderson in Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
18/04/2023	1500/1100			CA	BOC Governor testifies to House of Commons committee
18/04/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
18/04/2023	1700/1300			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
19/04/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
19/04/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
19/04/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
19/04/2023	0830/0930	*		UK	ONS House Price Index
19/04/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
19/04/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Construction Production
19/04/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
19/04/2023	1035/1235			EU	ECB Lane Speech at Enterprise Ireland Summit
19/04/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
19/04/2023	1215/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
19/04/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
19/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
19/04/2023	1500/1700			EU	ECB Schnabel Lecture at Leibniz-Zentrum ZEW
19/04/2023	1630/1730			UK	BOE Mann Panellist at Brandeis International Business School
19/04/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
19/04/2023	1800/1400			US	Fed Beige Book
19/04/2023	2300/1900			US	New York Fed's John Williams
20/04/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
20/04/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Manufacturing Sentiment
20/04/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Retail Sales
20/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
20/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
20/04/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
20/04/2023	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
20/04/2023	1400/1600	**		EU	Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
20/04/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
20/04/2023	1530/1130			CA	BOC Governor testifies at Senate committee
20/04/2023	1530/1630			UK	BOE Tenreyro Panels National Bureau of Economics Research Conf
20/04/2023	1600/1200			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
20/04/2023	1620/1220			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
20/04/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note
20/04/2023	1900/1500			US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
20/04/2023	1900/1500			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
20/04/2023	2015/2215			EU	ECB Schnabel Lecture at Stanford Graduate School of Business
20/04/2023	2100/1700			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
21/04/2023	2300/0900	***		AU	Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
21/04/2023	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
20/04/2023	2345/1945			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
21/04/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
21/04/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
21/04/2023	0700/0900			EU	ECB de Guindos Remarks at Fundacion La Caixa
21/04/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/04/2023	0715/0915	**		FR	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/04/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/04/2023	0730/0930	**		DE	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/04/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Services PMI (p)
21/04/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
21/04/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
21/04/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
21/04/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Services PMI flash
21/04/2023	0830/0930	***		UK	S&P Global Composite PMI flash
21/04/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
21/04/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash)
21/04/2023	1345/0945	***		US	S&P Global Services Index (flash)
21/04/2023	1430/1630			EU	ECB Elderson at Peterson Institute Climate Event
21/04/2023	1745/1945			EU	ECB de Guindos at Colegio de Economistas de Madrid Event
21/04/2023	2035/1635			US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook