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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - US CPI and UK Data Highlight

The week ahead is highlighted by US CPI and a heavy docket of UK data.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY - UK Data

It will be an incredibly busy week for the UK with labour market data released on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday, activity data on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. The highlight of the labour market data remains the wage data, with a continued deceleration in regular private sector AWE expected. The ONS published revised (un)employment data on Monday 5 February – these come from a separate survey to the wage data, but the ONS is still not confident enough for these data to be classed as official national statistics. Inflation data on Wednesday is expected to pick up from the December print – with services inflation expected by an early consensus to see a reacceleration to 6.9%Y/Y largely due to base effects. The CPI will also receive new weightings. Activity data on Thursday is expected to see a fall in December after the pickup in November, with consensus looking for a 0.0%Q/Q print (which would see the UK narrowly avoid a technical recession). Wage and inflation data remain the key inputs for the MPC’s decision over how long to keep rates at 5.25% for.

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TUESDAY to FRIDAY - UK Data

It will be an incredibly busy week for the UK with labour market data released on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday, activity data on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. The highlight of the labour market data remains the wage data, with a continued deceleration in regular private sector AWE expected. The ONS published revised (un)employment data on Monday 5 February – these come from a separate survey to the wage data, but the ONS is still not confident enough for these data to be classed as official national statistics. Inflation data on Wednesday is expected to pick up from the December print – with services inflation expected by an early consensus to see a reacceleration to 6.9%Y/Y largely due to base effects. The CPI will also receive new weightings. Activity data on Thursday is expected to see a fall in December after the pickup in November, with consensus looking for a 0.0%Q/Q print (which would see the UK narrowly avoid a technical recession). Wage and inflation data remain the key inputs for the MPC’s decision over how long to keep rates at 5.25% for.

Keep reading...Show less