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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - US CPI and UK Data Highlight

TUESDAY to FRIDAY - UK Data

It will be an incredibly busy week for the UK with labour market data released on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday, activity data on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. The highlight of the labour market data remains the wage data, with a continued deceleration in regular private sector AWE expected. The ONS published revised (un)employment data on Monday 5 February – these come from a separate survey to the wage data, but the ONS is still not confident enough for these data to be classed as official national statistics. Inflation data on Wednesday is expected to pick up from the December print – with services inflation expected by an early consensus to see a reacceleration to 6.9%Y/Y largely due to base effects. The CPI will also receive new weightings. Activity data on Thursday is expected to see a fall in December after the pickup in November, with consensus looking for a 0.0%Q/Q print (which would see the UK narrowly avoid a technical recession). Wage and inflation data remain the key inputs for the MPC’s decision over how long to keep rates at 5.25% for.

TUESDAY - US January CPI

US CPI on Tuesday lands after the significant trimming of Fed rate cut expectations seen since the bumper payrolls report on Feb 2 before a succession of FOMC members calling for patience with rate cuts. Consensus sees core CPI print another 0.3% M/M in January and Friday’s seasonal revisions shouldn’t have materially swayed these estimates. Core CPI was revised down from 0.31 to 0.28% M/M in Dec but with the three-month average unchanged at 3.3% annualized. Core services were revised lower meanwhile, including the “supercore” down from 4.3% to 4.0% annualized over three months. It still sees a large wedge to the PCE supercore though, tracking 2.2% annualized in December (prior to revisions). As such, specific CPI implications for PCE are again likely to help set the tone for market reaction.

THURSDAY - BSP Decision

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to hold steady next week. Despite the recent move lower in headline and core inflation the central bank remains wary of renewed upside pressures and wants to be confident of sustaining inflation back into the 2-4% target range. Growth is folding up, which is another factor that will likely prevent a near term dovish pivot.

THURSDAY - Australia Labour Market Data

Australian jobs data is expected to show steady trends. The market looks for a slight uptick in the unemployment rate but from a low 3.9% to 4.0%. Jobs growth is expected to return to positive territory, +27.5k projected against a -65.1k drop last month. It will likely take a big surprise from the print to shift RBA expectations in the near term.

FRIDAY - CBR Decision

The CBR is expected to keep rates unchanged at 16% when they meet on Feb 16. While the Bank may moderate its usual hawkish rhetoric, inflation remains above the upper bound of the CBR’s inflation target band with economic activity data continuing to run hot. On the other hand, the USD/RUB exchange rate has stabilised around the 90.00 level while Deputy Governor Zabotkin said recently the key rate will be cut in 2024.


DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
12/02/20240945/1045EU ECB's Keynote Speech at Lane
12/02/20241315/1415EU ECB's Lane participates in 'post-pandemic' roundtable
12/02/20241420/0920US Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
12/02/20241550/1650EU ECB's Cipollone participates in panel on Euro@25
12/02/20241800/1300US Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
12/02/20241800/1800UK BOE's Bailey lecture at Loughborough University
12/02/20241900/1400**US Treasury Budget
13/02/20240600/1500*JP Machinery orders
13/02/20240700/0700***UK Labour Market Survey
13/02/20240730/0830***CH CPI
13/02/20241000/1100***DE ZEW Current Expectations Index
13/02/20241000/1100***DE ZEW Current Conditions Index
13/02/20241000/1000*UK Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
13/02/20241100/0600**US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
13/02/20241330/0830***US CPI
13/02/20241355/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
14/02/20240700/0700***UK Consumer inflation report
14/02/20240700/0700***UK Producer Prices
14/02/20240700/0800**NO Norway GDP
14/02/20240830/0930EU ECB's De Guindos speech at Mediterranean CB's conference
14/02/20241000/1100**EU Industrial Production
14/02/20241000/1100***EU GDP (p)
14/02/20241000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
14/02/20241200/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
14/02/20241400/1500EU ECB's Cipollone statement on digital euro
14/02/20241430/0930US Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
14/02/20241500/1500UK BOE's Bailey Lord Economic Affairs Committee
14/02/20241530/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
14/02/20241630/1730EU ECB's Cipollone in CEO Summit
14/02/20241930/1430CA BOC Deputy Mendes panel talk.
15/02/20242350/0850***JP Japan GDP 1st Estimate
15/02/20240030/1130***AU Labor Force Survey
15/02/20240430/1330**JP Industrial production
15/02/20240700/0700**UK UK Monthly GDP
15/02/20240700/0700**UK Trade Balance
15/02/20240700/0700***UK GDP First Estimate
15/02/20240700/0700**UK Index of Services
15/02/20240700/0700***UK Index of Production
15/02/20240700/0700**UK Output in the Construction Industry
15/02/20240800/0900***ES HICP (f)
15/02/20240800/0900EU ECB's Lagarde statement at ECON hearing
15/02/20241000/1100*EU Trade Balance
15/02/20241200/1300EU ECB's Lane seminar at Florence School
15/02/20241300/1300UK BOE's Greene fireside chat with Fitch Ratings
15/02/20241315/0815**CA CMHC Housing Starts
15/02/20241330/0830***US Jobless Claims
15/02/20241330/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
15/02/20241330/0830**CA Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/02/20241330/0830**US Import/Export Price Index
15/02/20241330/0830***US Retail Sales
15/02/20241330/0830**US Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/02/20241330/0830**US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
15/02/20241350/1350UK BOE's Mann panellist at 40th NABE Conference
15/02/20241400/0900*CA CREA Existing Home Sales
15/02/20241415/0915***US Industrial Production
15/02/20241500/1000*US Business Inventories
15/02/20241500/1000**US NAHB Home Builder Index
15/02/20241530/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
15/02/20241815/1315US Fed Governor Christopher Waller
15/02/20242100/1600**US TICS
15/02/20240000/1900US Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
16/02/20240700/0700***UK Retail Sales
16/02/20240700/0800**SE Unemployment
16/02/20240745/0845***FR HICP (f)
16/02/20240845/0945EU ECB's Schnabel lecture at EMU Lab
16/02/20241330/0830*CA International Canadian Transaction in Securities
16/02/20241330/0830**CA Wholesale Trade
16/02/20241330/0830***US PPI
16/02/20241330/0830***US Housing Starts
16/02/20241410/0910US Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
16/02/20241500/1000**US U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
16/02/20241710/1210US San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
16/02/20241800/1300**US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
16/02/20241940/1940UK BOE's Pill panellist at 40th NABE Conference

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