Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TUESDAY to FRIDAY - UK Data
It will be an incredibly busy week for the UK with labour market data released on Tuesday, inflation on Wednesday, activity data on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. The highlight of the labour market data remains the wage data, with a continued deceleration in regular private sector AWE expected. The ONS published revised (un)employment data on Monday 5 February – these come from a separate survey to the wage data, but the ONS is still not confident enough for these data to be classed as official national statistics. Inflation data on Wednesday is expected to pick up from the December print – with services inflation expected by an early consensus to see a reacceleration to 6.9%Y/Y largely due to base effects. The CPI will also receive new weightings. Activity data on Thursday is expected to see a fall in December after the pickup in November, with consensus looking for a 0.0%Q/Q print (which would see the UK narrowly avoid a technical recession). Wage and inflation data remain the key inputs for the MPC’s decision over how long to keep rates at 5.25% for.
TUESDAY - US January CPI
US CPI on Tuesday lands after the significant trimming of Fed rate cut expectations seen since the bumper payrolls report on Feb 2 before a succession of FOMC members calling for patience with rate cuts. Consensus sees core CPI print another 0.3% M/M in January and Friday’s seasonal revisions shouldn’t have materially swayed these estimates. Core CPI was revised down from 0.31 to 0.28% M/M in Dec but with the three-month average unchanged at 3.3% annualized. Core services were revised lower meanwhile, including the “supercore” down from 4.3% to 4.0% annualized over three months. It still sees a large wedge to the PCE supercore though, tracking 2.2% annualized in December (prior to revisions). As such, specific CPI implications for PCE are again likely to help set the tone for market reaction.
THURSDAY - BSP Decision
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is expected to hold steady next week. Despite the recent move lower in headline and core inflation the central bank remains wary of renewed upside pressures and wants to be confident of sustaining inflation back into the 2-4% target range. Growth is folding up, which is another factor that will likely prevent a near term dovish pivot.
THURSDAY - Australia Labour Market Data
Australian jobs data is expected to show steady trends. The market looks for a slight uptick in the unemployment rate but from a low 3.9% to 4.0%. Jobs growth is expected to return to positive territory, +27.5k projected against a -65.1k drop last month. It will likely take a big surprise from the print to shift RBA expectations in the near term.
FRIDAY - CBR Decision
The CBR is expected to keep rates unchanged at 16% when they meet on Feb 16. While the Bank may moderate its usual hawkish rhetoric, inflation remains above the upper bound of the CBR’s inflation target band with economic activity data continuing to run hot. On the other hand, the USD/RUB exchange rate has stabilised around the 90.00 level while Deputy Governor Zabotkin said recently the key rate will be cut in 2024.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 12/02/2024 | 0945/1045 |  | EU | ECB's Keynote Speech at Lane | |
| 12/02/2024 | 1315/1415 | | EU | ECB's Lane participates in 'post-pandemic' roundtable | |
| 12/02/2024 | 1420/0920 |  | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 12/02/2024 | 1550/1650 | | EU | ECB's Cipollone participates in panel on Euro@25 | |
| 12/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
| 12/02/2024 | 1800/1800 |  | UK | BOE's Bailey lecture at Loughborough University | |
| 12/02/2024 | 1900/1400 | ** | | US | Treasury Budget |
| 13/02/2024 | 0600/1500 | * |  | JP | Machinery orders |
| 13/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Labour Market Survey |
| 13/02/2024 | 0730/0830 | *** |  | CH | CPI |
| 13/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** |  | DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 13/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | DE | ZEW Current Conditions Index |
| 13/02/2024 | 1000/1000 | * | | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 13/02/2024 | 1100/0600 | ** | | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 13/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | CPI |
| 13/02/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 14/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Consumer inflation report |
| 14/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Producer Prices |
| 14/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | NO | Norway GDP |
| 14/02/2024 | 0830/0930 | | EU | ECB's De Guindos speech at Mediterranean CB's conference | |
| 14/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | Industrial Production |
| 14/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | GDP (p) |
| 14/02/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 14/02/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 14/02/2024 | 1400/1500 | | EU | ECB's Cipollone statement on digital euro | |
| 14/02/2024 | 1430/0930 | | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 14/02/2024 | 1500/1500 | | UK | BOE's Bailey Lord Economic Affairs Committee | |
| 14/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 14/02/2024 | 1630/1730 | | EU | ECB's Cipollone in CEO Summit | |
| 14/02/2024 | 1930/1430 |  | CA | BOC Deputy Mendes panel talk. | |
| 15/02/2024 | 2350/0850 | *** | | JP | Japan GDP 1st Estimate |
| 15/02/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** |  | AU | Labor Force Survey |
| 15/02/2024 | 0430/1330 | ** | | JP | Industrial production |
| 15/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | ** | | UK | UK Monthly GDP |
| 15/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | ** | | UK | Trade Balance |
| 15/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | GDP First Estimate |
| 15/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | ** | | UK | Index of Services |
| 15/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Index of Production |
| 15/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | ** | | UK | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 15/02/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** |  | ES | HICP (f) |
| 15/02/2024 | 0800/0900 | | EU | ECB's Lagarde statement at ECON hearing | |
| 15/02/2024 | 1000/1100 | * | | EU | Trade Balance |
| 15/02/2024 | 1200/1300 | | EU | ECB's Lane seminar at Florence School | |
| 15/02/2024 | 1300/1300 | | UK | BOE's Greene fireside chat with Fitch Ratings | |
| 15/02/2024 | 1315/0815 | ** | | CA | CMHC Housing Starts |
| 15/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 15/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 15/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 15/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 15/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Retail Sales |
| 15/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 15/02/2024 | 1350/1350 | | UK | BOE's Mann panellist at 40th NABE Conference | |
| 15/02/2024 | 1400/0900 | * | | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 15/02/2024 | 1415/0915 | *** | | US | Industrial Production |
| 15/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | | US | Business Inventories |
| 15/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 15/02/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 15/02/2024 | 1815/1315 | | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 15/02/2024 | 2100/1600 | ** | | US | TICS |
| 15/02/2024 | 0000/1900 | | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | |
| 16/02/2024 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Retail Sales |
| 16/02/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | Unemployment |
| 16/02/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** |  | FR | HICP (f) |
| 16/02/2024 | 0845/0945 | | EU | ECB's Schnabel lecture at EMU Lab | |
| 16/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 16/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 16/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | PPI |
| 16/02/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Housing Starts |
| 16/02/2024 | 1410/0910 | | US | Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr | |
| 16/02/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 16/02/2024 | 1710/1210 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 16/02/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 16/02/2024 | 1940/1940 | | UK | BOE's Pill panellist at 40th NABE Conference |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.