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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - US CPI Highlights Agenda

THURSDAY - US CPI

On Thursday, the US CPI report for December could see some moderation in monthly core run rates, but not by much. Consensus only marginally leans towards 0.2% over 0.3% M/M in the still early stages for the Bloomberg survey after 0.28 % M/M in November. Three-month run rates of core CPI inflation have lifted from a recent low of 2.4% in August to 3.4% in November. This should of course continue to be watched, but whilst remembering there has been a larger gap with core PCE of late, which increased a more modest 2.2% annualized over the three months to November. Analyst estimates don’t appear to put much weight on higher shipping costs following Red Sea attacks, but it’s another area to watch after core goods deflation in recent months.

TUESDAY / THURSDAY - EMERGING MARKET CENTRAL BANKS

POLAND: The Polish central bank is expected to keep policy unchanged next Tuesday. A lower-than-expected headline CPI read for December is unlikely to sway the thinking of the board, who are contending with uncertainty stemming from the still-in-progress 2024 budget plan as well as the expiration of several anti-inflation shield measures put in place by the former government. That said, a multi-year low for headline inflation and a sequential slowing of core CPI likely means the NBP inflation target will be met this year, and a resumption of the easing cycle can follow from Q2 onwards.

PERU: In Peru, BCRP looks set to cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 6.5% on Thursday, following 25bp reductions at each of the previous four meetings. The bank is also expected to maintain its cautious tone, although tight monetary conditions, declining inflation and weak economic activity will keep the door open to further gradual rate cuts ahead.

REPUBLIC OF KOREA: All surveyed analysts expect the Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged next Thursday. In November, the BoK turned slightly dovish, commenting that it would “...maintain a restrictive policy stance for a sufficiently long period of time”, compared with “for a considerable time” previously. The BoK then also marginally lowered its 2024 GDP forecast to 2.1% and raised forecasts for 2024 headline and core CPI to 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively.

FRIDAY - UK ACTIVITY DATA

UK activity data due on Friday (including monthly GDP) is expected to show a bit of a rebound after the weak -0.2%M/M October print. Early analyst previews have been split between expecting +0.1%M/M, +0.2%M/M and +0.3%M/M. All of the subcomponents are expected to post small positive numbers. This will be the last print before the MPC’s February meeting which is unanimously expected to see Bank Rate remain at 5.25%, but will likely have less influence on the vote breakdown than the inflation and labour market which are due the following week.

FRIDAY - CHINA DATA

The main focus will be on the December inflation data. The market expects a -0.3% y/y outcome for the CPI, against a prior -0.5% outcome. The PPI is projected at -2.6%y/y, against a -3.0% prior. Inflation pressures have underwhelmed in recent months, as signs of China's economic recovery started to wane. A downside surprise for the data may see further calls for easier policy settings, which has been a strong theme over recent weeks. Other data which may be out is the Dec aggregate finance and new ledning figures. Dec trade figures are also due. Export growth has been hovering just above flat in recent months.

DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
06/01/20241615/1115US Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
08/01/20240700/0800**DE Trade Balance
08/01/20240700/0800**DE Manufacturing Orders
08/01/20240730/0830***CH CPI
08/01/20240730/0830**CH Retail Sales
08/01/20241000/1100**EU Retail Sales
08/01/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
08/01/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
08/01/20241730/1230US Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
08/01/20242000/1500*US Consumer Credit
09/01/20242330/0830**JP Tokyo CPI
09/01/20240001/0001*UK BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
09/01/20240030/1130***AU Retail trade quarterly
09/01/20240030/1130**AU Retail Trade
09/01/20240030/1130*AU Building Approvals
09/01/20240645/0745**CH Unemployment
09/01/20240700/0800**DE Industrial Production
09/01/20240745/0845*FR Foreign Trade
09/01/20241000/1100**EU Unemployment
09/01/20241000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
09/01/20241100/0600**US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
09/01/20241330/0830*CA Building Permits
09/01/20241330/0830**CA International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
09/01/20241330/0830**US Trade Balance
09/01/20241355/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
09/01/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
09/01/20241700/1200US Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
09/01/20241800/1300***US US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
10/01/20240030/1130***AU CPI Inflation Monthly
10/01/20240700/0800***NO CPI Norway
10/01/20240700/0800**SE Retail Sales
10/01/20240700/0800**SE Private Sector Production m/m
10/01/20240745/0845*FR Industrial Production
10/01/20240800/0900EU ECB's De Guindos speech at Spain Investor Day
10/01/20241000/1100*IT Retail Sales
10/01/20241000/1000**UK Gilt Outright Auction Result
10/01/20241200/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
10/01/2024-***CN Money Supply
10/01/2024-***CN New Loans
10/01/2024-***CN Social Financing
10/01/20241415/1415UKTreasury Select Hearing on FSR
10/01/20241500/1000**US Wholesale Trade
10/01/20241530/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
10/01/20241800/1300**US US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
10/01/20242015/1515US New York Fed's John Williams
11/01/20240030/1130**AU Trade Balance
11/01/20240800/0900**ES Industrial Production
11/01/20240900/1000*IT Industrial Production
11/01/20241330/0830***US Jobless Claims
11/01/20241330/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
11/01/20241330/0830***US CPI
11/01/20241530/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
11/01/20241800/1300***US US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond
11/01/20241900/1400**US Treasury Budget
12/01/20240030/1130**AU Lending Finance Details
12/01/20240130/0930***CN Producer Price Index
12/01/20240130/0930***CN CPI
12/01/20240500/1400JP Economy Watchers Survey
12/01/20240700/0700**UK UK Monthly GDP
12/01/20240700/0700**UK Index of Services
12/01/20240700/0700***UK Index of Production
12/01/20240700/0700**UK Trade Balance
12/01/20240700/0700**UK Output in the Construction Industry
12/01/20240745/0845***FR HICP (f)
12/01/20240745/0845**FR Consumer Spending
12/01/20240800/0900***ES HICP (f)
12/01/20241230/1330EU ECB's Lane Speech + Q&A at REBUILD Annual Conference
12/01/2024-***CN Trade
12/01/20241330/0830***US PPI
12/01/20241500/1000US Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
12/01/20241700/1200***US USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
12/01/20241700/1200**US USDA GrainStock - NASS
12/01/20241700/1200***US USDA Winter Wheat
12/01/20241800/1300**US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly

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