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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: US CPI in Focus
MONDAY
Germany Industrial Production: German industrial production is seen inching up by a marginal +0.2% m/m in November, after a shallow -0.1% m/m contraction in October and production stalling compared to October 2021. A downside tail risk exists following Friday’s factory orders, which dived -5.3% m/m in November, markedly more severe than anticipated and signalling a July 2020 low.
The collapse in demand was largely driven by foreign orders, which will likely feed through into weaker year-end production levels.
Eurozone Unemployment: The euro area unemployment rate is forecasted to hold steady at the record low of 6.5% in the November data as the bloc continues to experience a record-tight labour market. This comes despite slowing growth as many eurozone economies teeter on the edge of recession into year-end. Yet PMI surveys suggest that rate of hiring has recently moderated, with construction in particular recording continued layoffs. For now, the employment outlook remains robust, providing confidence in the ECB’s plan for further rate hikes (albeit at a lower 50bp rate).
TUESDAY
France Industrial Production: After the downside surprise -2.6% m/m, -2.7% y/y slide in French IP in October, a more modest-1.0% m/m contraction is pencilled in for November. Mining and energy are driving the decline, whilst manufacturing and transport sectors also appear to be standing on shaky legs. Spanish industrial production due shortly after will complete the bulk of relevant IP prints ahead of Friday’s euro-area aggregate release.
US NFIB Small Business Optimism: NFIB small business optimism is expected to edge down by 0.4 points to 91.5 in December from the six-month high recorded in November. The indicator remains depressed, having hovered around 98 points this time last year. Easing inflation pressures have been boosting optimism for small businesses, yet high costs and labour shortages continue to signal recession.
WEDNESDAY
No data of note.
THURSDAY
US CPI: US headline inflation is set to ease further in the December data, with prices expected to stall on the month and moderate by 0.6pp to +6.5% y/y, with the drop in gasoline prices alongside softer energy prices providing relief. Core inflation remains a key focus ahead of the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. Core is largely anticipated to soften by 0.3pp to +5.7% y/y.
Service price inflation has been highlighted to be of concern to the Fed in recent rhetoric and is heavily weighted in the core PCE basket. The persistent tightness of the US labour market signals little relief for wage cost inflation.
FRIDAY
UK Monthly GDP/Services/Industrial Production/Trade: The UK’s round of November data is due on Friday and will signal continued weakness into Q4. Industrial production, manufacturing, services and construction are all anticipated to contract on the month by around -0.3%, feeding into monthly GDP estimated at -0.3% m/m after the +0.5% m/m uptick recorded in October. The BOE December DMP Survey saw UK GDP revised lower with manufacturing and electricity generation notably weaker than previously estimated.
France & Spain Final HICP: Final December inflation prints for France and Spain should confirm easing headline CPI, whilst core inflation continued to edge up.
Eurozone Industrial Production: Following a slew of national prints, industrial production is projected to expand by +0.5% m/m and y/y in November for the bloc. This is an improvement from the -2.0% m/m fall in October, yet weaker November 2021 levels. Note that Irish data due on Monday will likely again distort the aggregate data, due to recently high volatility related to transfer pricing by multinational corporations. As such, headline eurozone data should be interpreted with this in mind.
US Prelim Michigan Index: Wrapping up the week will be the January U Michigan prelim sentiment index for January. A 0.8-point improvement to 60.5 is expected by consensus, whilst inflation expectations for both 1-year and 5-10-year will likely hold steady at +4.4% and +2.9%.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
09/01/2023 | 0645/0745 | ** | CH | Unemployment | |
09/01/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production | |
09/01/2023 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Foreign Trade | |
09/01/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Unemployment | |
09/01/2023 | - | UK | House of Commons Returns | ||
09/01/2023 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Building Permits | |
09/01/2023 | 1530/1530 | UK | BOE Pill Speech at NYU Money Market Association | ||
09/01/2023 | 1600/1100 | ** | US | NY Fed survey of consumer expectations | |
09/01/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill | |
09/01/2023 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill | |
09/01/2023 | 1730/1230 | US | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | ||
09/01/2023 | 2000/1500 | * | US | Consumer Credit | |
10/01/2023 | 0001/0001 | * | UK | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor | |
10/01/2023 | 0700/0800 | * | NO | CPI Norway | |
10/01/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Private Sector Production | |
10/01/2023 | 0745/0845 | * | FR | Industrial Production | |
10/01/2023 | 0800/0900 | ** | ES | Industrial Production | |
10/01/2023 | 0930/0930 | UK | BOE Governor Bailey at Riksbank conference | ||
10/01/2023 | 1000/1000 | ** | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
10/01/2023 | 1010/0510 | CA | Governor Macklem at Riksbank Conference | ||
10/01/2023 | 1010/1110 | EU | ECB's Isabel Schnabel at Riksbank conference | ||
10/01/2023 | 1010/1910 | JP | BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at Riksbank conference | ||
10/01/2023 | 1100/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | |
10/01/2023 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index | |
10/01/2023 | 1400/0900 | US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Riksbank conference | ||
10/01/2023 | 1400/1500 | DE | Buba Vice President Claudia Busch as Riksbank conference | ||
10/01/2023 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | IBD/TIPP Optimism Index | |
10/01/2023 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Wholesale Trade | |
10/01/2023 | 1800/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result | |
11/01/2023 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Retail Trade | |
11/01/2023 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales | |
11/01/2023 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
11/01/2023 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks | |
11/01/2023 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result | |
12/01/2023 | 0030/1130 | ** | AU | Trade Balance | |
12/01/2023 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index | |
12/01/2023 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | CPI | |
12/01/2023 | 0700/0800 | ** | NO | Norway GDP | |
12/01/2023 | 1230/0730 | US | Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker | ||
12/01/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Jobless Claims | |
12/01/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
12/01/2023 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | CPI | |
12/01/2023 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks | |
12/01/2023 | 1630/1130 | US | St. Louis Fed's James Bullard | ||
12/01/2023 | 1700/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE | |
12/01/2023 | 1700/1200 | ** | US | USDA GrainStock - NASS | |
12/01/2023 | 1700/1200 | *** | US | USDA Winter Wheat | |
12/01/2023 | 1700/1700 | UK | BOE Mann Lecture at University of Manchester | ||
12/01/2023 | 1800/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond | |
12/01/2023 | 1900/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget | |
13/01/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK | UK Monthly GDP | |
13/01/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK | Index of Services | |
13/01/2023 | 0700/0700 | *** | UK | Index of Production | |
13/01/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK | Output in the Construction Industry | |
13/01/2023 | 0700/0700 | ** | UK | Trade Balance | |
13/01/2023 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | Inflation report | |
13/01/2023 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (f) | |
13/01/2023 | 0800/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (f) | |
13/01/2023 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Industrial Production | |
13/01/2023 | 0900/1000 | DE | GDP 2022 | ||
13/01/2023 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Industrial Production | |
13/01/2023 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance | |
13/01/2023 | - | *** | CN | Trade | |
13/01/2023 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index | |
13/01/2023 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | University of Michigan Sentiment Index (p) | |
13/01/2023 | 1520/1020 | US | Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.