MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - US CPI, UK Jobs/CPI and EZ/SW Data

TUESDAY - SWEDEN CPI

Tuesday sees the release Swedish October CPI, which is the last inflation print before the Riksbank's final monetary policy meeting of the year on November 23. September CPI was higher-than-expected and showed broad-based pricing pressure, most notably in the services sector. Given the Riksbank's data dependent stance as of the September meeting, October CPI - in particular the underlying core components - will be highly anticipated to gauge the likely outcome for policy rates in November. Current consensus is for an increase in Y/Y CPIF inflation to 4.4% (vs 4.0% prior) and a fall in CPIF ex-energy to 6.3% Y/Y (vs 6.9% prior). Next week also sees unemployment claims (Tuesday) and the October labour force survey (Friday).

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY - UK LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION AND RETAIL SALES

The week ahead will see a number of key UK data releases with labour market data, unemployment and retail sales all due for release.

Tuesday will see labour market data released, with average hourly earnings the most notable release. The MPC has been placing a bit less emphasis on this recently but it still has the potential to move markets. The rest of the labour market report will see the experimental unemployment numbers published again ahead of the ONS’s transition to the full new labour report by March.

The highlight of the UK data week will be inflation data on Wednesday. The Bank of England’s MPR forecast headline CPI to fall to 4.76%Y/Y in October while the consensus looks for a slightly larger fall to 4.7%Y/Y (from 6.65%Y/Y in September). This large move lower from September can largely be attributed to the introduction of negative base effects in consumer energy prices. In terms of other categories, the Bank of England expects services inflation to remain broadly at 6.9%Y/Y until the end of the year (6.89%Y/Y for October). In general this persistence in services inflation seems to be in contrast to expectations on the sell-side for a gradual fall into year-end. Core goods prices are also expected to fall, petrol prices are expected to have less of a negative contribution to the headline inflation rate while food price inflation is also expected to continue to fall (albeit it’s still expected to remain around 10%Y/Y).

Retail sales data on Friday also has market-moving potential but is quite a volatile series so harder to get an accurate read from.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY - EZ GDP, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND FINAL HICP

Next week sees the flash release of Q3 Eurozone GDP and employment on Tuesday, September industrial production on Wednesday and final October HICP on Friday. The preliminary flash GDP estimate came in at 0.1% Y/Y and -0.1% Q/Q, while industrial production is expected to show continued weakness judging by the individual country prints already released (and will likely be dragged down further by a -27.0% Y/Y print from Ireland, reflecting contracting "manufacturing activity in the multinational sector", per the Irish Stats Office). Most interest though will be in the final HICP print, which will be released alongside the various underlying inflation metrics that the ECB pay particular attention to. The PCCI measure (regarded as one of the best underlying inflation indicators by the ECB) has been sticky above the 2% target for the last 3-months, hovering around 2.6%.

WEDNESDAY - US CPI

US CPI lands on Tuesday and will be closely watched as ever. The market has priced very low odds of further Fed tightening since the payrolls report on Nov 3, although Chair Powell using an IMF event to warn about being “misled by a few goods months of data” and that “inflation has given us a few head fakes” could see renewed sensitivity to signs of strength. Consensus puts core CPI at a 0.3% M/M whilst falling energy prices weigh on headline at 0.1% M/M (both seasonally adjusted). The annual reset of health insurance will provide an uplift but a change in methodology this year adds more uncertainty. This uplift could help see supercore inflation start to see some increasingly uncomfortable trend growth rates.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
11/11/2023	2030/1530			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
13/11/2023	0500/1300	***		CN	Money Supply
13/11/2023	0500/1300	***		CN	New Loans
13/11/2023	0500/1300	***		CN	Social Financing
13/11/2023	0815/0915			EU	ECB's De Guindos speech on "The Future of Banking"
13/11/2023	1600/1100	**		US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
13/11/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
13/11/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
13/11/2023	1900/1400	**		US	Treasury Budget
14/11/2023	0700/0800	***		SE	Inflation Report
14/11/2023	0800/0900	***		ES	HICP (f)
14/11/2023	0800/0900			EU	ECB's Lane participates in SNB-FRB-BIS Conference
14/11/2023	0800/0300			US	New York Fed's John Williams
14/11/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	GDP (p)
14/11/2023	1000/1100	*		EU	Employment
14/11/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
14/11/2023	1000/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
14/11/2023	1100/0600	**		US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
14/11/2023	1200/1200			UK	BOE's Dhingra panellist at Festival of Economics
14/11/2023	1330/0830	***		US	CPI
14/11/2023	1345/1345			UK	BOE's Pill speech at the Festival of Economics
14/11/2023	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
14/11/2023	1500/1000			US	Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
14/11/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
14/11/2023	1745/1245			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
15/11/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
15/11/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Retail Sales
15/11/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Industrial Output
15/11/2023	0200/1000	**		CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
15/11/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Consumer inflation report
15/11/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Producer Prices
15/11/2023	0745/0845	***		FR	HICP (f)
15/11/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
15/11/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Industrial Production
15/11/2023	1000/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
15/11/2023	1000/1100			EU	European Commission Autumn Econ Forecasts
15/11/2023	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
15/11/2023	1330/0830	**		CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/11/2023	1330/0830	**		CA	Wholesale Trade
15/11/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
15/11/2023	1330/0830	***		US	PPI
15/11/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/11/2023	1400/0900	*		CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/11/2023	1500/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
15/11/2023	1530/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
15/11/2023	1800/1800			UK	BOE's Haskel speech at the Resolution foundation
16/11/2023	1315/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
16/11/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
16/11/2023	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
16/11/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Import/Export Price Index
16/11/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
16/11/2023	1415/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
16/11/2023	1415/1515			EU	ECB's De Guindos participates in systemic risk board
16/11/2023	1425/0925			US	New York Fed's John Williams
16/11/2023	1430/0930			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
16/11/2023	1500/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
16/11/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
16/11/2023	1545/1545			UK	BOE's Ramsden remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board
16/11/2023	1600/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
16/11/2023	2100/1600	**		US	TICS
17/11/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Retail Sales
17/11/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	Unemployment
17/11/2023	0830/0930			EU	ECB Lagarde Keynote Speech at Banking Conference
17/11/2023	0900/1000	**		EU	EZ Current Account
17/11/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
17/11/2023	1310/1310			UK	BOE's Ramsden keynote speech at Conference
17/11/2023	1315/1315			UK	BOE's Greene panellist at European Banking Congress
17/11/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
17/11/2023	1330/0830	*		CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/11/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
17/11/2023	1445/0945			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
17/11/2023	1500/1000	*		US	Services Revenues
17/11/2023	1500/1000			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
17/11/2023	1500/1600			EU	ECB's Cipollone participates in digital euro round table