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MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - US QRA, Fed and BoE Highlight Busy Week

MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US Quarterly Refunding

Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding process for the Feb-Apr quarter begins with borrowing estimates released on Mon Jan 29 (1500ET), followed by the refunding announcement itself on Wed Jan 31 (0830ET). There will be three key elements to watch in the refunding announcement itself: the main thing will be the projected increases in Treasury coupon sizes, but also worth noting are the guidance for future quarters, and the (likely) announcement of a buyback program. Broad consensus is that there will be a similar increase across auction sizes as seen in the last round, which would mark new records for sizes in the 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y segments of the Treasury curve.

TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - EM Central Banks

HUNGARY: Following a strong hint from Deputy Governor Virag that the pace of monetary easing will be accelerated at the next MPC meeting, consensus is now skewing toward a 100bp rate cut by the NBH on Tuesday following consecutive 75bp moves at the prior three meetings. Nevertheless, central bank officials will be alert to the deteriorating external risk environment.

COLOMBIA: Following a first 25bp cut in the cycle to 13% in December, BanRep is expected to deliver another rate cut on Wednesday, although analysts are currently evenly split between a 25bp and 50bp move. Officials have continued to sound cautious, but the larger-than- expected decline of inflation in December, weak activity and strong FX support the case for an acceleration in the pace of easing over the coming meetings.

CHILE: Following the larger-than-expected drop of inflation in December and decline of inflation expectations back to target, the BCCh is expected to deliver a larger 100bp policy rate cut to 7.25% on Wednesday.

BRAZIL: In Brazil, the COPOM is widely expected to deliver another 50bp SELIC rate cut to 11.25% on Wednesday. This would be the fifth successive 50bp cut, and would be consistent with guidance after the December meeting, which signalled further reductions of the same magnitude in the next meetings.

SINGAPORE: Separately in Singapore next week, the MAS remains focused on tempering inflation, with the slope of the SGD NEER, band width and mid-point all expected to remain unchanged.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY - EZ January Flash Inflation

Eurozone January flash HICP is released on Thursday, with country-level releases filtering in from Tuesday (beginning with Spain). January will be an important month to see how HICP reacts to the annual weighting changes and tax policy updates in certain countries. After the annual headline rate rose 0.5ppts in December to 2.9% Y/Y, analysts expect a deceleration to 2.7% Y/Y and -0.3% M/M. The core reading is expected to continue its disinflation to 3.2% Y/Y (vs 3.4% prior), though over the coming months we will be watchful as to whether stagflationary signals from the recent flash PMIs begin to show themselves in the core goods/services HICP data.

WEDNESDAY - Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve will hold rates steady for the 5th time in 6 meetings next week, further cementing expectations that the hiking cycle is over. Given FOMC participants’ pushback against 2024 market rate cut pricing since the December meeting, the main question will be the degree to which the Statement and Chair Powell leave the door open to a rate cut as soon as March. There is a good chance that the forward guidance will be amended to remove the tightening bias in favor of a more neutral stance, in light of recent disinflationary progress. The FOMC is also expected to discuss plans to slow the pace of quantitative tightening in the coming months, though it is very unlikely that any decisions will be reached or announced at this stage.

THURSDAY - Riksbank Decision

The Riksbank are widely expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.00% in its first meeting of 2024, with most focus on whether (or, more likely, by how much) the pace of government bond sales will be increased. The MNI Markets Team expects no change to the policy rate, and an increase in the pace of bond sales to around SEK6.5bln/month.

THURSDAY - BoE Decision

The Bank Rate is unanimously expected to remain on hold during Thursday’s meeting but there will be a number of things to look out for from the MPC meeting. First will be the vote breakdown: the MNI Markets team expects 1-2 of the hawkish dissenters to switch to voting for unchanged rates, and/or for Dhingra to vote for a cut. Second, is the guidance. On balance we would expect the Bank to maintain its tightening bias in the MPS (the sellside is divided on this), and to continue to note that rates need to be “restrictive for an extended period of time” and “sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long.” Third will be the Minutes – here we do expect a change and expect the language suggesting that it was a “finely balanced” decision whether to hike or not to be removed. Finally, the new forecasts in the MPR will be in focus with inflation and wage data undershooting the Bank’s forecasts, gas and oil prices moving notably lower but around a 100bp increase in cuts priced in over the forecast horizon and the fiscal loosening announced in the Autumn Statement to be incorporated. Each of these four components has potential to be market moving and to change market estimates of the future path of BOE policy.

FRIDAY - US Labour Market Report

The nonfarm payrolls report for January is released on Friday. Analyst consensus sticks with a fairly typical ~180k after December saw a modest beat at 216k but continued a 2023 theme of larger downward revisions. This month’s release includes the annual benchmark revision for the establishment survey, tentatively indicated as a -306k downward adjustment to the March 2023 level of payrolls before revisions to subsequent months based on new seasonal factors and estimates for the net birth/death model. Separately, the household survey will see new population controls, meaning the level of Jan’24 employment (for example) won’t be directly comparable with Dec’23, but ratios including the unemployment rate should be unaffected. Elsewhere, we watch to see whether the unemployment rate resumes a slow move higher, having pulled back with two 3.7% months, and the extent to which average hourly earnings growth moderates after a surprisingly strong 0.44% M/M in Dec. The wage figures should also be seen in the context of quarterly data released earlier in the week including the Employment Cost Index for Q1 (Wed) and productivity growth/ULCs for Q1 (Thu).


DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
29/01/20240700/0800***SE GDP
29/01/20240700/0800**SE Retail Sales
29/01/20241310/1410EU ECB's de Guindos at Invesment Outlook Conference
29/01/20241530/1030**US Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
29/01/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
29/01/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
29/01/20242000/1500***USUS Treasury Marketable Borrowing Estimates
30/01/20242330/0830*JPLabor Force Survey
30/01/20240001/0001*UK BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
30/01/20240030/1130**AU Retail Trade
30/01/20240630/0730**FR Consumer Spending
30/01/20240630/0730***FR GDP (p)
30/01/20240700/0800***DE GDP (p)
30/01/20240800/0900***ES HICP (p)
30/01/20240800/0900***ES GDP (p)
30/01/20240800/0900**CH KOF Economic Barometer
30/01/20240800/0900**SE Economic Tendency Indicator
30/01/20240900/1000***IT GDP (p)
30/01/20240900/1000**IT PPI
30/01/20240900/1000EU ECB's Lane on 'a year with the euro in Croatia'
30/01/20240930/0930**UK BOE M4
30/01/20240930/0930**UK BOE Lending to Individuals
30/01/20241000/1100***EU EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Q/Q
30/01/20241000/1100***EU EMU Preliminary Flash GDP Y/Y
30/01/20241000/1000*UK Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
30/01/20241000/1100**EU EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
30/01/20241000/1100*EU Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
30/01/20241355/0855**US Redbook Retail Sales Index
30/01/20241400/0900**US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
30/01/20241400/0900**US FHFA Home Price Index
30/01/20241400/0900**US FHFA Home Price Index
30/01/20241500/1000***US Conference Board Consumer Confidence
30/01/20241500/1000**US housing vacancies
30/01/20241500/1000***US JOLTS jobs opening level
30/01/20241500/1000***US JOLTS quits Rate
30/01/20241530/1030**US Dallas Fed Services Survey
30/01/20241630/1130*US US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
31/01/20242350/0850*JP Retail sales (p)
31/01/20242350/0850**JP Industrial production
31/01/20240030/1130***AU CPI inflation
31/01/20240030/1130***AU CPI Inflation Monthly
31/01/20240130/0930***CN CFLP Manufacturing PMI
31/01/20240130/0930**CN CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
31/01/20240700/0800**DE Import/Export Prices
31/01/20240700/0800**DE Retail Sales
31/01/20240700/1500**CN MNI China Liquidity Index (CLI)
31/01/20240730/0830**CH Retail Sales
31/01/20240745/0845***FR HICP (p)
31/01/20240745/0845**FR PPI
31/01/20240855/0955**DE Unemployment
31/01/20240900/1000***DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI
31/01/20240900/1000***DE Bavaria CPI
31/01/20241200/0700**US MBA Weekly Applications Index
31/01/20241300/1400***DE HICP (p)
31/01/20241315/0815***US ADP Employment Report
31/01/20241330/0830***CA Gross Domestic Product by Industry
31/01/20241330/0830**US Employment Cost Index
31/01/20241330/0830**US Treasury Quarterly Refunding
31/01/20241445/0945***US MNI Chicago PMI
31/01/20241530/1030**US DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
31/01/20241900/1400***US FOMC Statement
01/02/20242200/0900**AU S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/02/20240030/1130*AU Building Approvals
01/02/20240030/1130**AU Trade price indexes
01/02/20240030/0930**JPS&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
01/02/20240145/0945**CNS&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI
01/02/20240815/0915**ESS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/02/20240830/0930***SE Riksbank Interest Rate Decison
01/02/20240845/0945**IT S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/02/20240850/0950**FRS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/02/20240855/0955**DES&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/02/20240900/1000**EUS&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
01/02/20240930/0930**UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
01/02/20241000/1100***EU HICP (p)
01/02/20241000/1100**EU Unemployment
01/02/20241000/1100***IT HICP (p)
01/02/20241130/1230EU ECB's Lane remarks at EIEF
01/02/20241200/1200***UK Bank Of England Interest Rate
01/02/20241230/1230UK BoE Press Conference
01/02/2024-***US Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
01/02/20241330/0830***US Jobless Claims
01/02/20241330/0830**US WASDE Weekly Import/Export
01/02/20241330/0830**US Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity
01/02/20241400/1400UK DMP Data
01/02/20241445/0945***USS&P Global Manufacturing Index (final)
01/02/20241500/1000***US ISM Manufacturing Index
01/02/20241500/1000*US Construction Spending
01/02/20241530/1030**US Natural Gas Stocks
02/02/20240030/1130**AU Lending Finance Details
02/02/20240745/0845*FR Industrial Production
02/02/20241215/1215UKBOE's Pill- MPR National Agency briefing
02/02/20241330/0830***US Employment Report
02/02/20241500/1000**US U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
02/02/20241500/1000**US Factory New Orders
02/02/20241800/1300**US Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly

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