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MNI Inflation Insight, Mar'23: CPI Warrants Hike, Financial Stress Could Prevent It

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  • Core CPI inflation was slightly stronger than expected in February at 0.45% M/M (cons 0.4), the highest since September with no sign of slowing down.
  • Core non-housing services accelerated more notably to also the fastest pace since September, but was boosted by a strong bounce in airfares (which wasn’t replicated in subsequent PPI data, the PCE input).
  • Markets after the release priced circa 80% probability of a 25bp hike from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting, and indeed a majority of analysts see it as a baseline barring a further intensification of financial market stresses.
  • However, with the situation still highly fluid, that has since dropped to circa 50% chance of a 25bp hike (with 50% of a pause) as European bank shares tumble.

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  • Core CPI inflation was slightly stronger than expected in February at 0.45% M/M (cons 0.4), the highest since September with no sign of slowing down.
  • Core non-housing services accelerated more notably to also the fastest pace since September, but was boosted by a strong bounce in airfares (which wasn’t replicated in subsequent PPI data, the PCE input).
  • Markets after the release priced circa 80% probability of a 25bp hike from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting, and indeed a majority of analysts see it as a baseline barring a further intensification of financial market stresses.
  • However, with the situation still highly fluid, that has since dropped to circa 50% chance of a 25bp hike (with 50% of a pause) as European bank shares tumble.