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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI Insight: Australian Macro Chart Pack- RBA To Tighten Further, AUD Still Undervalued
- Model estimates suggest the RBA still has more work to do, but market pricing indicates the RBA cash rate is close to a peak (Slides 4-5). Markets expect the Fed rate to remain above the RBA cash rate for sometime (Slide 6) but the Fed is likely to be a bigger driver of this trend in 2023.
- Inflation & wage dynamics (Slides 7-10) will determine how much further the RBA tightens. The labour market remains tight (Slides 11-13) but employment growth is expected to cool in 2023. Housing & the flow on effect to consumer spending (14-18) are other key watch points for the RBA, particularly in terms of the cumulative impact of tightening through 2022. The RBA and consensus (Slides 19-21) expect weaker growth and inflation trends through 2023.
- The outlook for trade and the terms of trade is mixed in 2023 (Slides 22-24). China’s pivot away from CZS should be supportive (Slide 25), but expected weaker conditions in the rest of the world are a headwind (Slide 26). A Fed pivot should weigh on the USD all else equal and be a A$ positive (Slide 27), while simple valuation metrics continue to suggest the currency is undervalued (Slide 28).
- Global recession risks (Slide 29) can’t be discounted though, historically a meaningful AUD headwind. Correlations for AUD/USD remain strongest with commodity prices (particularly metals) and global equity trends (Slide 30).
- See the full chart pack here:
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.