MNI INSIGHT: UK, EU Seek Narrow Brexit Landing Ground

By Kevin Woodfield and David Robinson

     LONDON (MNI) - Efforts to secure a breakthrough on the Irish backstop

centre on the precise workings of an arbitration mechanism that will probably

take the Brexit negotiations well into an extension period of up to three months

beyond March 29, MNI understands.

     The realistic 'landing zone' for a way forward on the backstop that will

satisfy enough UK Members of Parliament and the remaining 27 European Union

member states looks to be small but is thought to be achievable when weighed

against the alternatives of a no deal Brexit or a re-run referendum.

     Legal experts focussed on the problem have proposed an agreement on a

separate protocol to make clear that an arbitration provision in the Withdrawal

Agreement can also apply to the future of the backstop, should it come into

force. 

     Cambridge law professor Kenneth Armstrong, who is heading a Brexit research

project, has championed creating an 'Implementation Protocol' that links the

Withdrawal Agreement to the broader, non-legally binding political declaration.

     --IMPLEMENTATION PROTOCOL

     "I think an Implementation Protocol could be agreed before 29 March," he

said, though an extended Article 50 period for the UK to depart the EU would

probably be needed to hammer out operational details.

     The proposal centres around creating a framework for reviewing compliance

and departure from the backstop. A joint committee could be agreed that would

provide guidance on the backstop and subsequent arbitration.

     "It might be difficult to get something detailed through translation and

legal "scrubbing" in the next (few) weeks but not impossible," Armstrong says,

noting an agreement in principle could be turned into legally binding language

during an extended Article 50 period.

     Legal discussions on the backstop between the UK and EU this week remain

sketchy. The idea of the so-called 'Implementation Protocol' is to link the

Withdrawal Agreement with the political declaration in such a way that

negotiations on a long-term EU-UK trade deal tackle the backstop rather than

become subject to it, and the backstop would fall should the trade talks fail.

     "There is a narrow space..but it is process plus legal guarantees. Of

course, anything will be predicated on the type of trade deal being agreed that

will obviate the need for a backstop," MNI has been informed.

     --'THREE TESTS'

     Such a formula would give the hard-Brexiteer European Research Group

something in terms of its 'three tests' to vote for Prime Minister Theresa May's

compromise deal but not all, while the Democratic Unionist MPs that she relies

on for a working majority would face a similar calculation.

     "I can see that some might want to see what that (arbitration assessment)

framework would look like now in order to agree to it but that might bog down

discussions," Armstrong said.

     "Nonetheless, given that there will have to be some kind of (Article 50)

extension the EU and UK could agree to also negotiate a draft..establishing the

framework during the extended negotiations."

     Such considerations leave open the possibility that PM May's compromise

deal will again be voted down in next week's meaningful vote 'mark 2', but she

will hope by a smaller margin than January's record defeat. 

     That would then pave the way for her to win a Parliamentary vote a couple

of days later to extend Article 50 for up to three months, with Brussels

bringing the EU-27 along, to finalise backstop negotiations.

     As the UK would not be participating in May's European Parliament

elections, it would be de facto outside the EU as of the scheduled March 29

departure date, closing down the need of extensions beyond June. PM May would

then have succeeded in presenting Parliament - in a meaningful vote 'Mark 3' -

the stark choice between her deal or no deal.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2223; email: david.robinson@marketnews.com

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3823; email: kevin.woodfield@marketnews.com

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