MNI INTERVIEW: Italy Left Doomed To Fail; Decline Pan-European

--Former PM Renzi "Unlikely" to Win 2018 Vote, Leading Commentator Says 

--Scissions Between Groupings Show Weakening Of Left's Governability 

--Europe Generally Seeing Same Decline of Centre-Left Groups

by Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - The recent split in Italy's political left is part of a

'suicide pact' fated to weaken the main Democrat party in the upcoming general

election and increase ungovernability risks, one of Italy's leading political

commentators HAS told Market News.

     In an exclusive interview with Market News, Andrea Ungari, professor of

history and theory of political parties at Rome's LUISS University, said that

the new left Free and Equal movement, launched to "destroy" Democrat leader and

former premier Matteo Renzi, will lead to the disintegration of Italy's left and

contribute to an electoral victory for the centre-right.

     "This latest scission proves the suicidal nature of Italy's left, an

historical trait that has frequently led members of a similar political

formation to kill each other over petty leadership goals," said Ungari.

     By continuing a "domestic war" they will contribute to the successful

comeback of Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party and help boost support for

the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, he warned.

     --RENZI DEFEAT

     Ungari noted that the left's splintering will most likely lead to a defeat

of Renzi as candidate for premier. Even if the dissident groups comprising the

new political movement are small at the moment, he said, once they unite and

enlarge to other radical, extreme left parties they have the potential of

draining votes from the Democrats.

     Ungari predicts that at next spring's general election, the Democratic

party, currently the largest in parliament, will lose support to barely 20%,

rendering it unable to govern.

     The main risk Italy faces is "a high degree of ungovernability" given that

with the new electoral system no single party on its own will ever win enough

votes to govern without having to find allies, and Renzi's Democrats are now

alone, Ungari notes.

     "The centre-left has always been able to generate great leaders, take

Renzi, as opposed to the centre-right. But if we look back at history, ever

since the early 1900's many of these leftist leaders have fought against each

other, destroying their own party in a sort of suicidal frenzy. Lethal divisions

are a predominant trait of Italy's left," said Ungari.

     This is because Italy's left has always been torn between progressive,

liberal and pro-reform leaders like Renzi on one side, and radical reactionary

ones on the other, standing against change like old guard dissidents.

     "All anti-Renzi forces are endorsing the ideals of leftist populism," said

Ungari.

     Renzi, in his view, is already a "lame duck" who has been weakened by

several fatal mistakes of his own making. Following the constitutional

referendum defeat, he chose to severe all ties with the old guard and move on

alone like a "caterpillar". Despite being both charismatic and a great

communicator who knows how to appeal to voters, Ungari believes Renzi "didn't

play his cards well".

     --MISSED OPPORTUNITY

     However, he also believes the new group to the left of the Democrats has

started off on the wrong foot. By naming current Senate president Pietro Grasso

as its leader, it is giving the centre-right an additional propaganda weapon to

exploit during the electoral campaign.

     "Grasso is a former prosecutor, and Italy's right has always believed in a

conspiracy theory where the left and the judges joined forces against

Berlusconi. They just got 'proof' of this alliance now," said Ungari.

     The crisis of Italy's left is not exceptional to Italy, however.

     "We are witnessing the decline of European centre-left parties and

governments across the union, starting from the weakening of French president

Emmanuel Macron," said Ungari.

     "And paradoxically, all this is leading to the rise of Europe's rightist

groups at the detriment of populists".

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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