-
Policy
Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM POLICY: -
EM Policy
EM Policy
Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
LATEST FROM EM POLICY: -
G10 Markets
G10 Markets
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
Launch MNI PodcastsFixed IncomeFI Markets AnalysisCentral Bank PreviewsFI PiFixed Income Technical AnalysisUS$ Credit Supply PipelineGilt Week AheadGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance CalendarsEZ/UK Bond Auction CalendarEZ/UK T-bill Auction CalendarUS Treasury Auction CalendarPolitical RiskMNI Political Risk AnalysisMNI Political Risk - US Daily BriefMNI Political Risk - The week AheadElection Previews -
Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
-
Commodities
-
Credit
Credit
Real time insight of credit markets
-
Data
-
Global Macro
Global Macro
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
Global MacroDM Central Bank PreviewsDM Central Bank ReviewsEM Central Bank PreviewsEM Central Bank ReviewsBalance Sheet AnalysisData AnalysisEurozone DataUK DataUS DataAPAC DataInflation InsightEmployment InsightGlobal IssuanceEurozoneUKUSDeep DiveGlobal Issuance Calendars EZ/UK Bond Auction Calendar EZ/UK T-bill Auction Calendar US Treasury Auction Calendar Chart Packs -
About Us
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Real-time Actionable Insight
Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI INTERVIEW: Slowing Growth Could Limit RBNZ Rate Hikes
A member of a “shadow board’ of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand believes the outlook for the NZ economy is “darkening” and that the central bank may not raise official interest rates to the forecast high of 3.9% by 2024.
Jarrod Kerr, the chief economist of publicly owned Kiwi Bank and a member of the shadow RBNZ board created by economic think tank the NZ Institute of Economic Research, was speaking after lower than expected GDP data for the first quarter of 2022 showed the NZ economy had contracted by 0.2% after 3.0% growth in the last quarter of 2021.
The RBNZ forecast for the March quarter was 0.7% growth.
“It was much lower than expected, and Covid-19 has had a much bigger impact particularly in the goods producing industries,” Kerr told MNI in an interview.
Kerr said a succession of rate rises since October, which have taken the Official Cash Rate to 2.0%, were cooling the property market and the RBNZ may need to consider the pace and extent of future hikes, (See: MNI STATE OF PLAY: RBNZ Wants 'Least Regrets" On Policy Views).
DOWNSIDE RISKS
In late May, Adam Richardson, the manager of central bank analytics and a new member of the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Committee, told MNI in an interview that the global economic situation contained a “small chance of some large downside risks” which could have a greater than expected impact on the NZ economy and interest rates.
“We’re already seeing the impact of higher interest rates in housing and consumption, and we are forecasting very soft growth next year,” Kerr said, building on views he made in March. “So I think the RBNZ has had a lot of bang for its buck with the rate rises.”
Kerr forecast another 50 basis point rise when the RBNZ meets in July, which would take the OCR to 2.5% as this was needed to bring inflation – currently at 6.9% - under control.
“I think we’ll see a few more rate rises from them, but I don’t think we’ll see it go to the height of 4% as they’re forecasting,” he said.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.