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MNI: ITALY DATA: Retail Sales (Jun 2019) Preview -...>

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MNI: ITALY DATA: Retail Sales (Jun 2019) Preview - 09:00 BST
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- Previous (May): -0.7% m/m, -1.8% y/y 
- Given the volatility of the series, retail sales may have rebounded in Jun...
- ... after a 0.7% m/m decline in May and a flat performance in Apr
- However, anything less than a 2.2% m/m rise in Jun (very unlikely given the
weak economic backdrop) would result in a negative q/q performance in Q2
- According to flash data, the overall economy stagnated in the second quarter
- While a detailed breakdown is not yet available, household consumption is
likely to have made only a meagre, if any, contribution to growth... 
- ... as an increase in car purchases will have been offset by soft retail sales
- Italy's unemployment rate fell to 9.7% in Jun - the lowest since Feb 2012...
- ... and consumer confidence subsequently rebounded healthily in Jul
- While these are positive developments, other indicators suggest consumer
spending will remain subdued - the ECB's latest Bank Lending Survey, for
example, showed that net demand for consumer credit declined in Italy in Q2

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