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MNI: Italy To Fall Into H1 Recession - Tremonti, Economists

(MNI) Rome

Government forecasts are too optimistic, Giulio Tremonti and prominent Italian economists tell MNI.

The Italian economy is likely to contract in the first half of the year, senior economists and a former finance minister told MNI, with all three calling the government’s baseline forecast of 3.1% growth in 2022 too optimistic, particularly if the war in Ukraine drags on.

Former Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti, Giampaolo Galli from the Observatory on Italian Public Accounts and Luiss University Professor Veronica de Romanis see growth this year as more likely to be about 2%, a level which the government has said is only probable if imports of Russian gas are restricted.

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The Italian economy is likely to contract in the first half of the year, senior economists and a former finance minister told MNI, with all three calling the government’s baseline forecast of 3.1% growth in 2022 too optimistic, particularly if the war in Ukraine drags on.

Former Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti, Giampaolo Galli from the Observatory on Italian Public Accounts and Luiss University Professor Veronica de Romanis see growth this year as more likely to be about 2%, a level which the government has said is only probable if imports of Russian gas are restricted.

Keep reading...Show less