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MNI Macro Deep Dive - Fiscal: Sizeable Global Tightening, But China Bucks the Trend

China stands out with projected fiscal easing over the next eighteen months at a time when most countries are tightening fiscal policy in cyclically adjusted terms

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Executive Summary

  • The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor forecasts large, and sticky, fiscal deficits across its forecast horizon, whilst advanced economies see government gross debt stabilize at best, and EMs see debt climb further.
  • Interest costs represent an increasingly large burden, meaning that fiscal impulse metrics such as changes in cyclically adjusted primary balances are for the most part seen to tighten over the next eighteen months.
  • There are however some notable differences by country: some of the globally significant standouts include a projected easing in China both this year and next, plus the US reverting to some mild fiscal easing in 2025 (albeit after some sizeable relative tightening this year).

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

MNI Macro Deep Dive - Fiscal, Apr 2024.pdf

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Executive Summary

  • The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor forecasts large, and sticky, fiscal deficits across its forecast horizon, whilst advanced economies see government gross debt stabilize at best, and EMs see debt climb further.
  • Interest costs represent an increasingly large burden, meaning that fiscal impulse metrics such as changes in cyclically adjusted primary balances are for the most part seen to tighten over the next eighteen months.
  • There are however some notable differences by country: some of the globally significant standouts include a projected easing in China both this year and next, plus the US reverting to some mild fiscal easing in 2025 (albeit after some sizeable relative tightening this year).

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

MNI Macro Deep Dive - Fiscal, Apr 2024.pdf

Keep reading...Show less