Free Trial

MNI Macro Deep Dive - Fiscal: Sizeable Tightening, But China Bucks Trend

GLOBAL

The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor forecasts large, and sticky, fiscal deficits across its forecast horizon, whilst advanced economies see government gross debt stabilize at best, and EMs see debt climb further.

  • Interest costs represent an increasingly large burden, meaning that fiscal impulse metrics such as changes in cyclically adjusted primary balances are for the most part seen to tighten over the next eighteen months.
  • There are however some notable differences by country: some of the globally significant standouts include a projected easing in China both this year and next, plus the US reverting to some mild fiscal easing in 2025 (albeit after some sizeable relative tightening this year).
  • For full PDF analysis click here

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.