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MNI MARKET ANALYSIS: EZ CPI Print Implies German HICP Fall

MNI (London)
  • Eurozone inflation cooled by 0.7pp to +8.5% y/y in the January flash estimate, 0.4pp lower than consensus expectations. Prices fell by -0.4% m/m, against expectations of a +0.1% m/m rise. Core CPI failed to edge down from +5.2% y/y in January, remaining sticky at the euro-era high recorded in December.
  • Yet this data contains a substantial degree of uncertainty, due to the delay of German inflation data which has been replaced with a Eurostat forecast. Germany accounts for around 28% of the headline eurozone aggregate index.
  • By means of backward induction and application of the new Eurostat country weighting schemes using the January flash data, MNI estimates the German HICP number supplied by Eurostat is likely to have been between +7.9% and +8.6% y/y in January.

We look at the full implications of this in the PDF available here:

MNI_EZ_Inflation_230201.pdf

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