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MNI Market Insight - USDJPY Trend Needle Still Points South

USDJPY has been in a bear trend since peaking at 111.71 on Mar 24 following an extremely volatile swing between Feb 20 and Mar 24.

  • The 8-month downtrend has established a bear channel that clearly highlights the nature of the move lower over the past 8-months.
  • Furthermore, moving average studies, looking at the 20- and 50-day EMAs, are in a bear mode. Price levels above the 50-day EMA represents the sell-zone. The selling pressure that develops once price enters this zone, clearly highlights the dominant bearish sentiment.
  • Scope is seen for a move towards the 103.18 key support, Nov 6 low. A break would expose 102.02 ahead of the year low print of 101.19, Mar 9 low. This latter level is a major support.
  • Note the bear channel base currently intersects at 100.87 while the top and key resistance is at 105.50. A channel breakout would signal a reversal.

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