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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI MARKETS ANALYSIS: Biggest US Midterms Risk Is Status Quo
MNI MARKETS ANALYSIS: Biggest US Midterms Risk Is Status Quo
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- Heading into Tuesday's midterm elections, the overwhelming expectation is that the Republicans win at least one if not both chambers of Congress. MNI's Political Risk team's midterm elections preview is available here.
- From an asset class perspective, the impact of that outcome is likely to be muted, and besides, there is little discernible pattern in recent post-midterm asset moves.
- But we could see a strong bearish Treasuries, bullish dollar move in the event the Democrats do the unlikely and win both the Senate and the House.
- That may seem counterintuitive given that it would simply return the status quo. But a strong reaction would be likely as it would change the macro policy setup for 2023 in a more expansionary fiscal / tighter monetary direction than is currently (overwhelmingly) priced in.
FULL ANALYSIS AVAILABLE HERE:
Table 1: Post-Midterm Election Returns (changes calculated from Oct 31 of midterm year)
Source: MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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