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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Hungary Central Bank
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- NBH To raise its benchmark rate by +30bps for its third consecutive hike
- Forecasts upgraded to +30bps for this meeting from +15bps following NBH recent 'hawkish stance'. We expect NBH policymakers will mostly likely follow economists' consensus in order to avoid a HUF depreciation and rising volatility in the long end of the interest rate curve
- CPI decelerated in July, coming in in lower than expected at 4.6% YoY (vs. 4.8%), down from 5.3% the previous month. This is still well above the NBH's 4% upper tolerance band - necessitating the +30bp step.
- Momentum on the HUF has been bullish against the Euro with traders chasing the monetary policy divergence between NBH and ECB.
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The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is expected to raise its benchmark by 30bps up to 1.50% on August 24, its third consecutive hike since June, despite the rising uncertainty over the Delta variant. Even though we first anticipated smaller monthly hikes (15bps) for the last 5 meetings of the year, we upgraded our forecasts to 30bps for this meeting following NBH recent 'hawkish stance' and we think that NBH policymakers will mostly likely follow economists' consensus in order to avoid a HUF depreciation and rising volatility in the long end of the interest rate curve.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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