Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive summary:
- Rates are likely to remain unchanged at 13% as the global banking crisis highlights the vulnerability of the forint to swings in market sentiment.
- The NBH are likely to maintain their hawkish stance on inflation to provide further support to the currency and its relatively generous carry profile.
- The majority of analysts previewed are uniform in seeing no change to the headline policy rate, while a convergence of the O/N rate to the effective rate is expected later this year.
See the full MNI Preview including sell-side analyst views here:
Rates are likely to remain unchanged at 13% as the global banking crisis highlights the vulnerability of the forint to swings in market sentiment. The NBH are likely to maintain their hawkish stance on inflation to provide further support to the currency and its relatively generous carry profile.
The SVB-led banking panic in Europe and the US weighed particularly heavy on high-yielders such as the Hungarian forint and the Mexican Peso, both of which were among the hardest hit currencies in the world. HUF’s YTD gains against EUR were erased and underperformed versus its CE3 peers, though the forint recouped a large part of those losses last week as risk sentiment improved. Nevertheless, the significant currency swings will be of concern to the NBH, and they are therefore likely to keep rates unchanged and maintain their hawkish guidance to provide a backstop to further losses.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.