Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- The NBP is likely to hike its policy rate by 75bps to 6.75% on July 7 in hopes to ease the elevated inflationary pressures.
- Risks may be skewed to the upside slightly, but the board has recently mentioned that it was not in favour of maintaining its 'sharp' 100bps+ hike stance.
- Risk off sentiment this week has been weighing on CEE currencies, with EURPLN surging dramatically higher to find resistance at 4.8035 on Wednesday, the 38.2% Fibo retracement of the 4.4830 – 5.0020 range.
Link to full preview:
MNI Poland CB Preview July 7 -Final.pdf
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is likely to hike its policy rate by 75bps to 6.75% on July 7 in hopes to ease the elevated inflationary pressures. This move will increase the benchmark to its highest level since November 2002.
Even though the momentum on inflation may be easing in Poland, inflation continues to accelerate in the CEE region with Polish CPI surging to 15.6% in June, its highest level since October 1996. Analysts have continued to review their year-end target to the upside, now expecting CPI inflation to be a 13.1% (versus 10.80% in the beginning of May). Inflation in Poland (as in CEE) remains driven by the strong rise in global energy and commodity prices, in addition to the global supply chain disruptions. Debates whether inflation is peaking or will peak in the coming months are still running, but the momentum is largely expected to ease in H2, leading to a potential decrease in implied volatility in the bond market.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.