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MNI NBP Preview - July 2021: NBP Seen On Hold

MNI NBP Preview - May 2021: Policy Rate To Remain Unchanged

Executive summary:

  • NBP is expected to remain on hold
  • Majority of the board thinks that the recent spike in prices is only going to be temporary
  • Uncertainty over the economic activity remains elevated.
  • Polish Health Minister recently commented that he sees risk of a 4th Covid wave in late August
  • Investors will carefully watch the NBP updated inflation forecasts
  • Next CPI inflation prints will be key for policy outlook

Click to view the full preview:

MNI Poland CB Preview July 8.pdf

The National Bank of Poland is expected to keep its reference rate, Lombard rate and deposit rate steady at 0.1%, 0.50% and 0%, respectively, despite rising inflationary pressures to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible to stimulate the economic recovery. Unlike their CEE peers, which have started raise interest rates at their last meeting in June, NBP policymakers prefer to leave interest rates unchanged as the uncertainty over the economic activity remains elevated.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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