MNI NBP Preview - Nov 2024: Projection Under Microscope
Executive Summary:
- The NBP will keep the reference rate unchanged.
- Inflation remains elevated at double the target.
- New inflation projection will supply information on the outlook.
Full preview including a summary of sell-side views here:
MNI NBP Preview - November 2024.pdf
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will leave interest rates unchanged again, with the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) monitoring the current flare-up in CPI inflation. Although the Polish central bank is expected to join its core and regional peers in cutting rates, this is unlikely to happen until next year, when inflation may start descending towards the +2.5% Y/Y +/- 1pp target. The highlight of the November meeting will be the publication of the inflation and GDP projection as part of the latest edition of the Inflation Report. The document and the accompanying comments from Governor Adam Glapiński may shed some light on the prevalent sentiment in the rate-setting panel as well as the likely timing of the first rate cut of the cycle.