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MNI NBP Preview - October 2021: NBP Seen On Hold

MNI NBP Preview - May 2021: Policy Rate To Remain Unchanged

Executive Summary:

  • The National Bank of Poland is expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 0.1%
  • Majority of the board still aims to keep interest rates low while economic recovery is taking place
  • However, odds for a November hike have been rising following the positive surprise in in inflation in the past few months
  • With the FRA 3Mx6M currently trading at 45bps above the Wibor 3M, traders are currently pricing in up to three 15bps by January

Check out full preview here:

MNI Poland CB Preview Oct 6 .pdf

The National Bank of Poland is expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 0.1% despite the positive surprise in inflation in September. Unlike their CEE peers, which seem to be very sensitive to the elevated inflationary pressures, the majority of the NBP board aim to keep financial conditions as loose as possible as the uncertainty over the economic recovery remains elevated.

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