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MNI NBP Review - July 2024: Forget About Rate Cuts

Executive Summary:

  • The NBP left interest rates unchanged.
  • CPI projection showed temporary rebound, return to target in ’26.
  • The Governor suggested rate cuts are unlikely before 2026.

Full review document including a summary of sell-side views here:

NBP Review - July 2024.pdf

Governor Adam Glapiński stole the show this week by extending the horizon of his forward guidance, with interest-rate cuts out of the question until 2026. His comments came on the back of forecasts from the new Inflation Report prepared by the central bank’s analytical staff and discussed during the Monetary Policy Council’s (MPC’s) meeting. The new forecast shows that headline inflation will peak at +6.3% Y/Y in 1Q2025 before easing off, returning to the tolerance zone in 1Q2026 and hitting the point-target in 4Q2026. Core inflation is expected to be persistent but should also gradually ease towards the target. Against this backdrop, the NBP opted to leave interest rates unchanged for the tenth consecutive time.

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