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Free AccessMNI: New UK GDP Publication Model to Be Rolled Out July 10
LONDON (MNI) - Ahead of next week's (Tues, July 10) first monthly estimate
of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), MNI outlines the motivation behind the change
of system made by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and the key
differences to look out for.
--MOTIVATION FOR SYSTEM SWAP
Speaking exclusively to MNI in May, James Scruton, Head of GDP at the ONS,
said the change in methodology and presentation would be for the better.
"The trade-offs are that we get a slightly less timely first estimate of
quarterly GDP and less data content in some of the components of GDP in the
first quarterly estimate. Overall, however, the first estimate of quarterly GDP
will be of far higher quality and our second estimate will be no different to
our current third estimate, both in terms of timing and data content," said
Scruton.
--OLD MODEL VS NEW
Up until now, the ONS's GDP publication model included three releases per
quarter - a preliminary estimate (published 25 days after the end of the
respective quarter, largely comprised of output data and with a data content of
roughly 45%), a second estimate (approx. 55 days after quarter-end, with the
data content rising to around 65%) and a final estimate (published 85 days after
quarter-end alongside the Quarterly National Accounts, with a data content of
around 90%).
The new model, effective from next week, will see one less quarterly
estimate of GDP but the introduction of rolling monthly figures.
The first quarterly estimate will arrive 40 days after the end of the
respective quarter. Although the output data content will be higher in this
reading, the income and expenditure content versus the current second estimate
will be lower.
Then, a further 45 days after this release, a fully comprehensive GDP
estimate will be published alongside the quarterly national accounts -
essentially unchanged form the old programme.
The introduction of the monthly GDP estimates reflects an initiative to
release economic statistics according to "themes", which each provide a
different perspective on UK economic activity.
Early last year saw the introduction of the Short-Term Economic Indicators
(STEI) release which grouped together the Index of Production and Trade
releases, published around the 10th of every month. From next week these will be
joined by the Index of Services print, brought forward by 2 weeks.
In doing so this installs the last piece of the puzzle and facilitates the
ONS to publish a monthly GDP in a manner which, in their words, should boost the
quality of the data and lessen the frequency of revisions.
Other subtle changes made include a more detailed breakdown of the services
numbers and the introduction of real and deflated trade balance figures to sit
alongside the more commonly cited nominal values.
--WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND
The data delivered on July 10 will cover GDP growth over the three months
to May but will also include month-over-month, year-over-year growth and
three-month year-over-year figures too.
Although containing strains of income and expenditure data, since it is a
non-calendar quarter the numbers will only be reported on an output basis -
breaking down GDP into the broader services, production, construction and
agriculture sub-categories.
The timetable for the next six months can be found below:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Calendar
month Monthly releases Quarterly releases
Tuesday 10th: Monthly GDP/
July STEI (for May)
Friday 10th: First quarterly
August Friday 10th: Monthly GDP/STEI GDP estimate
(for June) (for Quarter 2)
Monday 10th: Monthly GDP/STEI Friday 28th: Quarterly
September (for July) National Accounts
(for Quarter 2)
Wednesday 10th: Monthly
October GDP/STEI
(for August)
Friday 9th: First quarterly
November Friday 9th: Monthly GDP/STEI GDP estimate (for Quarter 3)
(for September)
Monday 10th: Monthly GDP/ Friday 21st: Quarterly National
December STEI (for October) Accounts (for Quarter 3)
Source: ONS
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MABPR$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.