Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Policy rate expected unchanged after December's hike
- Bank likely to confirm March as the next meeting at which rates will "most likely be raised"
- Higher inflation, stronger economic activity leaves upside risks to rate path projections
Following December’s hike to 0.50%, the Norges Bank are expected to keep rates unchanged in January, alongside the guidance provided by December’s monetary policy report. They are also likely to restate their view that “the policy rate will most likely be raised in March”. This sets up the bank for four rate hikes in 2022, bringing the main policy rate to 1.50% at year-end. There are no fresh rate path projections or economic forecasts at this meeting.
The Norges Bank shrugged off concerns surrounding the omicron variant in December, hiking rates by 25bps to 0.50% and name-checking March as the next most likely meeting at which rates will next be raised. By tightening policy and raising the terminal rate of the path projections, the bank have now solidly indicated that wage and price pressures are expected to remain elevated in the near-term, and will counter any risks from new variants, activity restrictions or vaccine effectiveness.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.