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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary:
- Bank expected to raise rates by 25bps, inline with the guidance handed down in March
- Non-MPR meeting, so no new path projections due
- Persistent weakness in NOK points to higher rate path going forward
Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:
The arguments in favour of a further 25bps this month are solid, aiding a unanimous consensus for a 25bps this month. The persistent weakness in the currency is a growing concern at the Bank and should be mentioned explicitly again in the policy statement. As a result, the Bank are seen not only raising rates at this meeting, but also flagging June as a further opportunity for tighter policy.
The Bank raised rates by 25bps to 3.00% in March and signalled the likelihood of additional tightening in May. Reinforcing the tightening bias was the material upgrade to rate path projections, which now fully discount two further 25bps hikes and a strong possibility for a third before year-end. As such, a commitment to further tightening at the June MPR meeting would not be outside of expectations.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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