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MNI Norges Bank Preview - November 2022: The Return of Gradualism?

Executive Summary:

  • Board likely choosing between another 50bps “double” hike, or a 25bps step that would mark the end of front-loading
  • Punchy inflation, higher interest rates among trade partners and a very tight labour market argue for another sizeable 50bps step this month
  • But, slowing real-time economic indicators, eroded household purchasing power and rates already above neutral make a 25bps rate hike the most likely outcome

Full preview including summary of sell-side views here:


Sell-side analysts are split almost down the middle between a 50bps move or a slower 25bps clip. This has fed directly into market pricing, with FRA spreads indicating a fine balance of expectations between a 2.50% and 2.75% rate for this month.

There are no new rate path projections or economic forecasts to accompany November’s decision, although unusually the governor Ida Wolden-Bache will be holding a press conference 30 minutes following the decision. The Bank’s schedule show the governor as presenting the Q3 monetary policy report, suggesting no unplanned data or rehashed forecasts will be disclosed. Nonetheless, the press conference gives the bank more opportunity to expand their language in September that “policy is starting to have a tightening effect on the Norwegian economy. This may suggest a more gradual approach to policy rate setting ahead.”

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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