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NORGES BANK: MNI Norges Bank Review: Dec '24 - Eyes Turn to March

NORGES BANK
Central Bank NewsCEEMEANorges BankBulletNorwayMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected in December. The policy guidance and rate path was largely in line with expectations, limiting the immediate market reaction in NOK FX and rates.
  • The policy statement signalled that rates would most likely be cut at the next MPR meeting in March, noting that “a restrictive monetary policy is still needed to stabilise inflation around target”.
  • The December rate path saw a small upward revision through the forecast horizon, more so further out the curve. There was up to a 15bp upward revision through 2025 and 2026, though the 20bp revision in Q4 2027 was probably a little more hawkish than expected.
  • Looking at initial reactions from sell-side analysts, there are no major forecast changes to note. Most analysts expect quarterly cuts through 2025, a little more dovish than Norges Bank’s December projections. 

SEE HERE FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Norges Bank held rates at 4.50% as unanimously expected in December. The policy guidance and rate path was largely in line with expectations, limiting the immediate market reaction in NOK FX and rates.
  • The policy statement signalled that rates would most likely be cut at the next MPR meeting in March, noting that “a restrictive monetary policy is still needed to stabilise inflation around target”.
  • The December rate path saw a small upward revision through the forecast horizon, more so further out the curve. There was up to a 15bp upward revision through 2025 and 2026, though the 20bp revision in Q4 2027 was probably a little more hawkish than expected.
  • Looking at initial reactions from sell-side analysts, there are no major forecast changes to note. Most analysts expect quarterly cuts through 2025, a little more dovish than Norges Bank’s December projections. 

SEE HERE FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION