MNI: NY Fed - Long-Term Inflation Expectations Edge Higher
MNI (WASHINGTON) - U.S. consumers' medium- and long-term inflation expectations increased slightly in September even as their near-term outlook for price pressures held steady, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report Tuesday, also showing delinquency expectations at the highest level since April 2020.
The median three-year inflation expectation increased to 2.7% from 2.5% in September and at the five-year horizon rose to 2.9% from 2.8%. The one-year outlooks held steady at 3.0%, according to the Survey of Consumer Expectations. (See: MNI POLICY: Fed To Scale Back To 25BP As US Outlook Stays Rosy)
The survey showed a 14.2% average probability of missing a minimum debt payment, up from 13.6% in August and the highest reading of the series since April 2020. September's increase was most pronounced for respondents between ages 40 and 60 and those with annual household incomes above USD100,000. Fewer households reported being better off and more respondents reported being worse off than a year ago, the survey showed.
Expectations that the unemployment rate will be higher in a year declined by 1.5 percentage points to 36.2% and the perceived probability of losing one's job over the next year remained unchanged at 13.3%.