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MNI Peru Central Bank Preview – March 2024: Gradual Easing Cycle To Continue

MNI Peru Central Bank Preview – March 2024

MNI Peru Central Bank Preview – March 2024

Executive Summary

  • Most analysts expect the BCRP to continue with its gradual easing cycle, delivering another 25bp cut which would bring the reference rate down to 6.00%.
  • However, one analyst expects the central bank to stay on hold at 6.25%, pausing the cycle after six consecutive 25bp moves.
  • The general view is that weak GDP growth, the decline in inflation expectations and recent appreciation of PEN against the US dollar still support the case for further gradual easing.
  • However, there is some caution emerging among analysts over declining interest rate differentials, given the shift in Fed rate cut expectations. The recent increase in CPI inflation also gives BCRP little room to step up the pace of easing.

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