MNI: Philly Fed Forecasters Lower Inflation, Jobless Estimates
Analysts expect a stronger U.S. labor market amid less inflation than they did three months ago and see little slowing in the economy, a Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia survey released Friday showed.
The quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters predicts the economy expanding at an annual rate of 2.1% this quarter, up from the prediction of 0.8% in the last survey. The 34 forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4% in 2024, up 0.7ppt from the estimate in the previous survey.
The forecasters see job gains in the current quarter at a rate of 235,800 per month. Employment projections for the current quarter and the following three quarters show upward revisions, with the unemployment rate only rising to 4.0% by the third quarter. Projections for both headline and core PCE inflation in 2024 will be lower at an annual rate of 2.1%, down from the previous predictions of 2.4%. (See: MNI INTERVIEW: Hot US Economy Complicates Fed Cut Calculus)
Source: Philly Fed