MNI POLICY: China May Grow More Than 5% In Q4: Advisors

China's GDP may grow at least 5% y/y in the last quarter, taking annual growth to around 2%, policy advisors said at the Annual Conference of Financial Street Forum 2020 on Thursday.

"Q4 growth may continue to recover to around 6%," said Zhu Guangyao, a former vice minister of finance.

Yao Jingyuan, a State Council advisor and former chief economist at the statistics bureau, has a more moderate estimate of over 5% growth for the quarter. Although China's economy grew 0.7% in the first three quarters, many indicators, especially in the industrial and services sectors, are still below normal levels, Yao said.

"Currently, China is lacking effective demand and facing structural problems," he added.

Consumption remains a drag on growth, with retail sales still falling 7.2% y/y for the first nine months and per capita spending declining 6.6%, Yao said.

Though the unemployment rate recovered to 5.4% in September from a high of 6.2% reached earlier this year, 10 of the 31 provinces surveyed see the rate above 6%, said Yao. Among college graduates, the rate of unemployment is still as high as 19.9% as the services sector was hit hard by the pandemic, he added.