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MNI POLICY: Fed Williams: Inflation Overshoot Merits Study 

By Jean Yung
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams
on Friday called on global monetary policymakers to study alternate inflation
targeting frameworks in order to lay a groundwork for new tools to battle the
next recession. 
     In remarks prepared for the Group of Thirty meeting in New York, Williams
said two alternatives, average-inflation and price-level targeting, can help
anchor inflation expectations in an environment of low neutral rates globally. 
     Over the past quarter century, neutral rates in the United States and other
advanced economies have declined from around 2% to 2.25% to 0 to 1.5% and are
expected to remain low for the foreseeable future, he noted. That means central
banks have little room to cut rates to stimulate the economy, and inflation
expectations could fall as a result. 
     Two alternatives merit discussion and have different costs and benefits, he
said. Below are his major points: 
     --In average-inflation targeting, the central bank purposely overshoots
inflation in good times to offset the inflation undershoot during bad times so
that the longer-run average inflation rate and inflation expectations are in
line with the target.
     --In price-level targeting, the central bank commits to keep the price
level near a steadily growing target path. 
     --Price-level targeting is a bigger leap from inflation targeting than
average-inflation targeting, but each can be implemented in ways similar to the
current framework. 
     --Any alternative framework will need to be communicated clearly and
carried out consistently over time to be effective. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com
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