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Free AccessMNI POLICY: Japan Jan Factory Output Posts 1st Rise in 3 Mnths
--BOJ officials Vigilant Against Temporary Slower Production
Japan's industrial production rose 4.2% m/m in January for the first rise in three months following a 1.0% fall in December, supporting the Bank of Japan's view of a moderate increase.
However, bank officials expect downward pressure on industrial production for the first quarter to be greater than they expected in January.
They judge that weaker production for the first quarter is largely caused by supply side reasons, such as the shortage of semiconductors and the shutdown of a Hitachi suspension plant damaged by the earthquake on Feb. 13.
Bank officials expect industrial production to pick up after a temporary weakness on the baseline assumption that demand for goods, including automobiles, remains solid.
January's rise was mainly led by higher production for general-purpose and business oriented machinery, electronic parts and devices and electrical machinery.
However, production for transport equipment, excluding motor vehicles, decreased.
Industrial output remains a key piece of data to aid BOJ economists assess the outlook, as it reflects both external and domestic demand, with the BOJ keeping the view on Thursday that industrial production and exports have increased.
The BOJ's latest assessment is that "Industrial production is likely to decelerate its pace of increase in the short run due to a peaking-out of pent-up demand for automobiles."
"However, it is expected to continue increasing, mainly supported by a global recovery in demand for business fixed investment and steady digital-related demand," the bank said.
Q1 SEEN RISING FURTHER
The government left its assessment unchanged from the previous month, noting "industrial production is recovering" and sees production rising 2.1% (revised from -0.3%) in February before falling 6.1% in March.
However, adjusting the upward bias in output plans, the forecast production would fall 0.4% m/m in February.
Based on this assumption and if March is flat, Q1 production would rise 0.9% q/q for the third straight rise following Q4's +6.4% rise and Q3's +8.7%.
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