MNI POLICY:Real-Time US Hiring Data Suggest Drawn-Out Recovery

By Brooke Migdon

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Real-time data tracking U.S. job openings indicate jobs

at the top and bottom of the wage distribution are returning more quickly than

middle-income positions, suggesting a more drawn-out recovery for lower-income

households.

     A large percentage of the approximately 6 million jobs currently available

on U.S. employment marketplace ZipRecruiter are temporary or low-wage positions,

Julia Pollak, a labor economist at ZipRecruiter, told MNI. Though search

intensity among more educated or higher-paid laid-off workers is currently muted

because they don't want to "downscale," the labor market crisis could be

exacerbated in the coming months when many of these workers are forced to return

to the market, she said.

     "There will be so much labor market congestion" when these workers

inevitably flood the jobs market, Pollak said, adding that employers will become

a lot "pickier" when inundated with hundreds of job applications and will likely

use academic credentials to differentiate among applicants, making it more

difficult for the less educated to find work. 

     "We're already seeing some degree of labor market polarization," she said,

noting that jobs in software development and warehousing and delivery are among

some of the most readily available as more consumers have turned to e-commerce

during the Covid-19 pandemic. "Many of the jobs in the middle will take a longer

time to come back."

     Although millions of jobs have become available since the Covid-19 pandemic

was declared in mid-March, job postings are still down by more than 48% from

their pre-crisis levels, Pollak said referencing ZipRecruiter data, a "warning

sign that the recovery is fragile and will not be smooth sailing."

     --'LONG ROAD'

     Job postings are particularly depressed in more affluent areas, Raj Chetty,

a professor of economics at Harvard University, said Wednesday during a virtual

presentation for the National Association of Business Economics. 

     Chetty, who leads the Harvard-based Opportunity Insights program

aggregating private-sector economic data in real time, said this phenomenon is a

"sign that it might be a long road to recovery for low-income households" in

these areas, barring any policy efforts that might curb still-widespread job

loss.

     "This very disparate job loss across regions and across sectors can persist

for a really long time because we tend to have very limited mobility across

sectors," he said. "What you can end up with is this kind of scarring effect

where we're going to see reduced economic activity for a really long time in

many parts of the country because of how the shock has played out."

     Total job postings for the week ending June 12 were down 16.4% from

January, when the first U.S. Covid-19 case was documented, according to the

Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker. 

     Jobs requiring minimal-to-some education were down 17.3% from January and

jobs requiring considerable-to-extensive education were down 51.7%. Jobs

requiring only moderate education were down 15.4%.

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202 371 2121; email: brooke.migdon@marketnews.com

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