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MNI BRiEF: Riksbank Puts Neutral Rate In 1.5 To 3.0% Range
MNI POLICY: Riksbank Jansson: -0.5% Negative Rate No Problem
The Riksbank could push benchmark rates back to recent lows at -0.5% without any great problems if needed, but Sweden should not be a leader in taking the rate into deep negative territory, Deputy Governor Per Jansson said Monday.
Responding to a question from MNI on the effective lower bound, Jansson told an online event hosted by Danske Bank that the Riksbank's experience of below zero rates was positive and that cutting the rate back to -0.5% would not be unworkable.
Jansson said he accepted the domestic and global situation was different now to the last time Sweden had negative rates, but thought the differences were small enough that rates at -0.5% would not be "a very big problem".
But he argued against being a leader taking rates deeper into negative territory, although he accepted the Riksbank might have to follow others into "deep negative rates".
"I think people think about -3, -4,- 5 percent. That I think is an experiment that I would not like Sweden to do first at least. I would like to see how others doing that before," he added.
Asked if the Riksbank had evidence that negative rates would work better in a recovery, Jansson told MNI the central bank had not researched whether there was asymmetric effects in different stages of an economic cycle.
The idea has been floated by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, but there appears to be a lack of research to support the view.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.