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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-Austria Election Briefing

Far-right Freedom Party could emerge as the largest in parliament at the 29 September election, risking relations w/EU
Political RiskStory

Austria holds its federal election on Sunday 29 September in a very different political environment to the one that was seen around the previous election in 2019. Then-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz was riding a wave of popular support, with his conservative People’s Party of Austria securing its best result in nearly 20 years. However, a corruption probe and scandal involving bribes to news outlets saw Kurz forced to resign in 2021. This scandal, combined with concerns over immigration and rising cost of living pressures on households, has seen supporters swing towards the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ). 

In this Election Briefing we provide an overview of how the election will work and the main parties involved, a set of post-election scenarios with attached probabilities, and a chartpack of opinion polls and betting market data showing the potential direction of the vote.

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Austria holds its federal election on Sunday 29 September in a very different political environment to the one that was seen around the previous election in 2019. Then-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz was riding a wave of popular support, with his conservative People’s Party of Austria securing its best result in nearly 20 years. However, a corruption probe and scandal involving bribes to news outlets saw Kurz forced to resign in 2021. This scandal, combined with concerns over immigration and rising cost of living pressures on households, has seen supporters swing towards the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ). 

In this Election Briefing we provide an overview of how the election will work and the main parties involved, a set of post-election scenarios with attached probabilities, and a chartpack of opinion polls and betting market data showing the potential direction of the vote.

Keep reading...Show less