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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-France Legislative Election Brief

France holds its elections for the 577 members of the National Assembly, the lower chamber of the country’s parliament, across two rounds on 12 and 19 June. The vote comes just two months after the presidential election, in which incumbent President Emmanuel Macron won a second five-year term in office. The parliamentary election will be seen as a key event by Macron and his centrist Renaissance Party in allowing the administration to proceed with its policy programme outlined ahead of the presidential election.

In this briefing we offer a short guide to the electoral alliances and parties involved, the electoral system, an opinion polling chartpack, and MNI Political Risk team’s implied probabilities of various scenario outcomes.

Full article PDF attached below:

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS-France Legislative Election Briefing.pdf

Chart 1. Legislative Election Opinion Poll Second-Round Seat Projection (Mean Average), Main Parties

Source: Ifop, OpinionWay/Kea, Ipsos-Sopra Steria, Harris Interactive, Elabe, MNI. N.b. Dashed line indicates 289 seats required for majority.

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