Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
On Sunday 14 March, voters in two German states will go to the polls for regional elections that are being closely watched as the outcomes could have political implications well beyond their state capitals. Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg are the first of several state elections due to be held before the federal election due in September. These are also the first electoral contests to take place since Armin Laschet was elected head of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in January.
Main Takeaways
- The senior coalition partners in both Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg look likely to retain their positions in the election, with strong approval ratings for both states' minister-presidents boosting the Social Democrats' and Greens' election prospects respectively.
- The election results for the CDU look likely to disappoint and could have significant implications for who the centre-right selects as its chancellor candidate (Kanzlerkandidat) seeking to succeed the departing incumbent Angela Merkel in the September federal election.
- Poor results for the CDU could tip the scales away from close Merkel ally Laschet and towards the more outspoken Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder.
MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS–German State Elections Key For CDU.pdf
Source: FGW, INSA, Infratest dimap, MNI
Chart 2. Opinion Polling for Baden-Württemberg Election, % and Trendline
Source: FGW, INSA, Infratest dimap, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.